Bangladesh elections: can new leader bring change after landslide victory?

Just over two years ago, when Sheikh Hasina won an election widely condemned as rigged in her favor, it was hard to imagine that her 15-year hold on power would be broken so suddenly, or that a rival party, all but written off, would make such a resounding comeback.

But in the Bangladeshi political cycle, it is yet another about-face between Hasina’s Awami League and the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP), which have alternately held power for decades.

Except that this is the first time that new BNP leader Tarique Rahman has officially led the party – and the first time he has stood for election.

His mother Khaleda Zia, died of illness late last yearwas at the head of the party for four decades. She took over after the assassination of her father, Ziaur Rahman, founder of the BNP and a key leader of the Bangladesh War of Independence.

Accused of profiting from nepotism when his mother was in power, Tarique Rahman also faces allegations of corruption. Five days before his mother’s death, he returned to Bangladesh after 17 years of self-imposed exile in London.

And although Rahman, 60, has at times served as de facto president of an emaciated BNP when his mother was imprisoned and more recently when she was ill, he is widely seen as an inexperienced leader.

“The fact that he has no prior experience probably works in his favor, because people are willing to give change a chance,” said political scientist Navine Murshid. “They want to think that new and good things are actually possible. So there’s a lot of hope.”

The party says its first priority is to bring democracy back to Bangladesh.

“All democratic institutions [and] “The financial institutions that have been destroyed over the last decade, we must first put them back in order,” Amir Khasru Mahmud Chowdhury, a senior BNP leader, told the BBC shortly after the election was called.

Bangladesh has a long history of promises made and broken, with parties becoming increasingly authoritarian once they came to power.

But this time, the country’s youth, who came forward during the 2024 “July Uprising” that toppled Hasina, seem less tolerant of accepting more of the same.

“We don’t want to fight anymore,” says Tazin Ahmed, a 19-year-old who participated in the uprising.

“The resignation of the previous prime minister was not a victory. When our country runs smoothly, without any corruption and the economy recovers, that will be our main victory.”

His cousin Tahmina Tasnim, 21, said: “The first thing we want is the unity of the people. We have the right to a stable nation and a stable economy. We participated in an uprising and we know how to fight back. So if the same things happen again, we will have the right to do it again.”

Since Hasina was ousted, violence has marred the tenure of Bangladesh’s interim leader, Mohammad Yunus.

Ensuring public order will have to be a key priority for the new government. Reviving the economy, reducing food prices and creating jobs for Bangladesh’s large youth population pose other significant challenges.

Sociologist Samina Luthfa says the lack of experience in leading a government affects all parties.

For the Islamist party Jamaat-e-Islami, banned twice in the history of Bangladesh, notably under Hasina, this is the first time that it has won a significant number of seats.

Its alliance partner, the National Citizens Party (NCP), formed by some of the students who led the uprising, won six seats in its first performance.

“We are going to see leaders in Parliament who have never been there before,” Luthfa said.

“The young people in the NCP have a lot to learn. The others are seasoned politicians but they don’t have the experience of running the country. So it’s going to be an uphill task.”

Jamaat’s manifesto was secular and development-oriented, making no mention of Islamic law.

But its website says: “Jamaat operates in the political arena because Islamic law cannot be enforced without political force,” which has always raised questions about what the party would do if it came to power.

Murshid says Jamaat’s performance in this election is not surprising.

“The Jamaat is a very organized political party. Over the past decades, they have worked tirelessly at the local level,” she says.

“I think that needs to be recognized but, of course, the problem is that they are inherently undemocratic, misogynistic and patriarchal.”

Luthfa says all parties have failed Bangladeshi women. Just over 4% of candidates were women.

“We, the women who participated in the July uprising, all the political parties, have failed to translate our collective action into a more formal political and electoral arena,” she says.

“Parliamentarians must now hurry to be able to present competent, honest and deserving candidates for the seats reserved for women in Parliament.”

Of the 350 seats in the Bangladesh Parliament, 300 are elected and the remaining 50 are reserved for women nominated by political parties in proportion to their electoral results.

Although this election was very different from the last polls conducted under Hasina – being genuinely competitive, with results unknown before voting began – her party’s exclusion from the elections cast a shadow over her credibility.

Given his claims about the revival of democracy, when asked if he would support the Awami League’s return to the political fold, senior BNP leader Chowdhury said: “It is not for us to decide.”

“For the Awami League to come back into the electoral process in Bangladesh, it will take some time as its credibility is questioned. When you are accused of killing your own people, of atrocities, of persecution, then the people will decide their place in the future of Bangladesh politics.”

From exile in India, Hasina called Thursday’s vote an “election of deception and farce” and called for new elections in which the Awami League would be allowed to participate.

Currently, public anger against his party is intense, but given Bangladesh’s political history, it would be premature to write off the Awami League for good.

Additional reporting by Aakriti Thapar