The Liberian-flagged oil tanker Shenlong Suezmax successfully docked at Mumbai Port after crossing the high-risk Strait of Hormuz amid intensifying conflict in West Asia March 11, 2026 in Mumbai, India.
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Oil prices jumped Thursday as investors pondered how long the Middle East conflict would block crude shipments passing through the Strait of Hormuz.
Comments from the US president Donald Trump In a national address Wednesday evening, he warned of renewed military aggression against Iran in the next two to three weeks, dashing hopes of an imminent de-escalation of the conflict and sending oil prices up more than 13 percent. However, prices fell from those highs after reports from Iran’s official IRNA news agency said Iran worked with Oman draft a protocol to “monitor transit” through the critical waterway between the two countries.
WE West Texas Intermediate Crude futures for May were up 10% at $110.22 a barrel as of 11:33 a.m. ET. June futures for international reference Brent crude rose more than 6% to $107.35 a barrel.
In his speech, Trump attributed the increase in oil prices to the “Iranian regime launching deranged terrorist attacks against commercial oil tankers and neighboring countries that have nothing to do with the conflict.”
He said that the United States ‘hit’ Iran ‘extremely hard’ over the next two to three weeks, while adding that the war will not last long and that discussions with Tehran “are ongoing,” leaving a diplomatic resolution on the table.
“We’re going to finish the job, and we’re going to finish it very quickly,” he said.
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Separately, a translation of the IRNA report indicates that tanker traffic in the main shipping channel could resume if it were “supervised and coordinated” by the two countries, according to Kazem Gharibabadi, Iranian Deputy Minister of Legal and International Affairs.
Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, which once hosted a fifth of global oil and gas flows, has effectively ground to a halt since the U.S.-Israel war against Iran began on Feb. 28, causing energy prices to soar in one of the world’s most devastating energy crises.
“It’s becoming increasingly clear that the U.S. position on what you do to move your oil out of and through the Strait of Hormuz is now something that Washington has largely washed its hands of. It’s now something that those moving oil through the Strait have to sort out for themselves,” Giles Alston, a political risk analyst at Oxford Analytica, said on CNBC on Thursday.Squawk Asia Box”.
George Efstathopoulos, portfolio manager at Fidelity International, told “Squawk Box Asia” on Thursday that markets had been bracing for a “binary outcome”, expecting the president to signal either his plans to exit the war or further escalation and prolonged uncertainty – “obviously we seem to be on the latter path at the moment”.
Trump said on Wednesday an article on Truth Social that Iran had demanded a ceasefirebriefly raising hopes of greater tanker movement through the waterway, driving down oil prices. Efstathopoulos expects this rhetoric to further fuel risk aversion as investors wait for uncertainty to subside.
Iran “President of the New Regime” has asked the United States for a cease-fire, a request that will only be heeded if the Strait of Hormuz is “open, free and clear,” Trump said. “In the meantime, we will sink Iran into oblivion or, as they say, return it to the Stone Age!!!”
The Islamic Republic, however, denied Trump’s claimssaying the waterway will not be reopened based on the US leader’s “absurd demonstrations” and that the main transit route remains “decisively and dominantly under the control of the IRGC Navy.”
Both sides frequently contradict each other in their assertions about the existence and status of peace negotiations since the start of the war. Trump also sent mixed signals, apparently saying that negotiations were close to a peace deal, but that the United States was also prepared to step up fighting by sending thousands of troops to the region.
Brent oil fell below $100 per barrel for the first time in a week after Trump said Tuesday evening that he expected the U.S. military to end its operations against Iran in “two or three weeks” and appeared to be declaring victory even without a negotiated deal with Iran. “We will leave very soon,” he said.
