Chances of a Super El Niño are even higher
This weather system is linked to more powerful typhoons, as well as famine and wildfires.
By Adam Kovac edited by Andrea Thompson
Satellite imagery shows the difference in average sea surface temperatures at the equator in the tropical Pacific Ocean (shown using various shades of red and orange for heat) during the first week of June 2026, compared to the baseline used by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Coral Reef Watch.
NOAA satellites
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The ongoing El Niño phenomenon has become more powerful over the past month and will likely continue to strengthen through 2027, according to updated data from the National Weather Service (NWS). Such a “Super El Niño” could mean an increased risk of deadly and destructive extreme weather events in various regions of the planet and would increase the chances of experiencing years of record heat globally.
El Niño is a global weather phenomenon that originates in the Pacific Ocean. The waters of the eastern tropical Pacific are normally colder than those in the west, but during an El Niño event, these colder waters become warmer. This, in turn, changes where heat is released into the atmosphere, thereby altering the main wind patterns. The downstream effects of this cascade can wreak havoc in some regions, for example by increasing the risks of famines, fires and floods in Southeast Asia. But they can also bring benefits to others, for example by leading to a less active hurricane season in the Atlantic.
The weather effects of a strong El Niño can be so devastating that some scientists have proposed geoengineering solutions to weaken the climate phenomenon, even if such action is currently not technically feasible and raises thorny ethical questions.
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The emergence of the famous climate model was confirmed by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration in Juneand new data shows that it has only gotten bigger since then. In a advisory Published July 9, the NWS said sea surface levels across a large area of the eastern and central Pacific were higher than the norm by one degree Celsius or more, with some areas reaching nearly three degrees Celsius higher. If a Super El Niño materializes, it will be one of the few events this strong since 1950. The NWS has given the system an 81% chance of reaching that status, as well as a 97% chance that the El Niño will last until early spring 2027.
The stronger El Niño, the greater the chance that 2026 or 2027, or both, will be the warmest year on record, as previous Super El Niños have done.
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