THE US Department of Agriculture (USDA) recently released trade forecasts showing that the agricultural trade gap will narrow significantly in fiscal year 2026. The forecast shows that the agricultural trade deficit will narrow from $43.7 billion in fiscal year 2025 to a projected $29 billion in fiscal year 2026, an improvement from last year’s level and the $37 billion projected in December 2025.
Undersecretary of Agriculture, Trade and Foreign Agricultural Affairs Luke Lindberg told Fox News Digital that while narrowing the gap was a step in the right direction, USDA is still working to return to a surplus.
“American farmers and ranchers have historically exported far more than we imported, including during President Trump’s first term, and we had an agricultural trade surplus,” Lindberg said.
“Unfortunately, in the four years under President Biden, we found ourselves with a $50 billion agricultural trade deficit predicted by his team just before he left office just a year ago. Today we are pleased to announce that we have reduced that deficit to $29 billion. Now we are still on track and we need to get back to a surplus, that’s the goal, but a 43% reduction in one year, It’s a good start,” he added.
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A soybean farmer drives his truck on a country road near his family’s farm in Cordova, Maryland, October 10, 2025. (Roberto Schmidt/AFP via Getty Images / Getty Images)
In order to return the United States to this surplus, the USDA is taking steps, which Lindberg described as a three-step process: entering into strong trade agreements that open markets for American farmers and ranchers, establishing buyer-seller relationships in those markets, and holding trading partners accountable for the commitments they make.
The deputy secretary said he was more optimistic than the forecast expressed because of the “historic” trade deals that President Donald Trump was able to secure. Lindberg said he believes the agreements have allowed American farmers and ranchers to compete on a level playing field.
“I think the more we can take advantage of the deals the president signed, the more we’ll see that number improve further from a trade deficit perspective,” Lindberg told Fox News Digital. “I’m excited to see how our producers are taking advantage of this significantly increased access and opportunity.”
Lindberg spoke of the opening of the Malaysian market as an example of a market recently opened to American farmers and ranchers. He said that during his visit to Malaysia, it was “very clear” that people wanted to buy American products. He said foreign buyers have confidence in the safety and quality of American products.
The undersecretary recalled meeting a restaurateur in Malaysia who had invested her own money in a processing plant in the United States so she could be the first to have American beef in her restaurant.
“These are the kinds of forward-thinking investments and conversations we’re having with buyers in these countries around the world,” he said.
Cattle are seen on a farm in Jamestown, California on October 26, 2025. (Frédéric J. Brown/AFP via Getty Images / Getty Images)
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Although the administration has focused on opening foreign markets, Lindberg said the impact could also be felt closer to home, as U.S. farmers and ranchers provide a greater share of the food Americans eat.
Beyond reducing the trade deficit, Lindberg said Americans may also see changes at grocery stores. He pointed to a projected decline in agricultural imports, including fruits and vegetables, and argued that increased domestic production could reduce U.S. dependence on foreign suppliers.
“Producing things locally, reducing transportation costs, all of that combines to achieve the president’s goal and objective, which is to reduce prices on the grocery aisles,” he said.
A worker uses a tractor to plant soybeans at Double G Angus Farms in Tiffin, Iowa, Tuesday, May 6, 2025. (Benjamin Roberts/Bloomberg via Getty Images / Getty Images)
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While the United States remains in a trade deficit, Lindberg said the narrowing gap signals a progression toward the agricultural trade surplus that American farmers and ranchers have experienced in previous years.
