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Synopsis
Global stocks started the new year on a positive note, with US stock futures and precious metals rising. Despite a recent pullback, 2025 saw strong gains driven by earnings expectations and AI optimism. Investors expect continued growth, although U.S. monetary policy and valuations present risks.
TIL CreationsMarket research firm Bespoke Investment Group has warned against expecting strong market performance during the first trading day of the new year.
Stocks started the new year on a positive note, with US stock index futures rising, while gold and silver advanced.
Futures for the S&P 500 and Nasdaq100 Indices rose 0.2% in early Asian trading, while Australian shares were little changed. Precious metals rebounded from losses late last year, with spot gold up 0.5% and silver up 1.4%. Cryptocurrencies were a bit stronger. Australian sovereign bonds fell.
Trade is expected to be weak across the region, with several markets closed for holidays, including in Japan and China, while South Korea has a delayed start. The S&P 500 extended a series of post-Christmas losses on Wednesday and the Nasdaq 100 experienced a fourth day of decline. Despite this, both indexes have recorded double-digit gains for three consecutive years.
The dollar posted its worst year since 2017, with investors saying further declines will come if the next Federal Reserve chief opts for deeper interest rate cuts. US Treasuries recorded their best year since 2020.
Despite the recent pullback, global stocks recorded their best year since 2019 as expectations for higher profits and optimism around artificial intelligence supported investor demand. However, uncertainty over the outlook for US monetary policy and high valuations remain major risks.
“The end of 2025 was a turbulent year in global markets, but that doesn’t take away from the fact that it was a very good year for investors,” Kyle Rodda, senior analyst at Capital.com, wrote in a note. “Naturally, with the start of the new year comes the question that everyone asks from year to year: will this continue? The consensus is that yes, it will.”
Wall Street is now well aware of the risks associated with the AI boom. But looking to the year ahead, few are advocating a move away from what they describe as “revolutionary technology.”
The economic impact of AI was in the headlines in 2025 and will remain so in 2026, Goldman Sachs Group Inc. economists including Joseph Briggs and Andrew Tilton wrote in a note Wednesday.
Although AI-related investments have clearly increased, the impact on GDP has been minimal and the boom in AI spending does not appear particularly large when compared appropriately to past technology investment cycles, they write.
“We remain optimistic about global growth in 2026, largely because our growth forecasts are well above consensus in the United States and China,” they said.
Market research firm Bespoke Investment Group has warned against expecting strong market performance during the first trading day of the new year.
Since 1953, the median change in the S&P 500 at the start of a new year has been a decline of 0.3%, with gains less than half the time, according to a Bespoke note. The stock market has also traded lower on the first trading day of each of the last three years, the note said.
Investors have at least one reason to be optimistic heading into the new year. MSCI’s index of world stocks has climbed an average of 1.4% in January over the past decade and advanced in six of those cases, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.
In Wednesday’s economic data, U.S. applications for unemployment benefits fell last week to one of the lowest levels this year.
Initial claims decreased by 16,000 to 199,000 in the week ended Dec. 27, according to Labor Department data released Wednesday. The median forecast in a Bloomberg survey of economists called for 218,000 applications.
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(What’s moving Sensex And Clever Track latest market news, stock market advice, Budget 2025, Equity market on the 2025 budget And expert adviceon AND Markets. Additionally, ETMarkets.com is now on Telegram. For the fastest news alerts on financial markets, investment strategies and stock market alerts, subscribe to our Telegram feeds .)
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