2023: Is Atiku the new Shagari?

With 2023 looming on the political horizon and the full cast of major political players in full light, something has become very glaring. Looks like we're back to the political season of 1979, and the class of '79 are on parade, once again!

In other words, history seems to be repeating itself. Every day, HE Atiku Abubakar looks more and more like the new Alhaji Shehu Usman Aliyu Shagari, Nigeria's first Executive President from October 1, 1979 to December 31, 1983. And the similarities are uncanny - be it background, marriage, choice of running mates or a pan-Nigerian platform etc.

First, the circumstances of the birth. Both Shagari and Atiku had fathers who were Fulani traders, farmers and herders. Both lost their father in childhood and were raised by others. While Shagari lost his father, Aliyu Shagari, when he was just five years old and cared for by Uncle Bello, Atiku lost his father at age 11 and was cared for by his stepfather.

But Atiku's case was worse as he quickly lost his mother to the cold hands of death. He was orphaned before he could learn the full meaning of the word. Yet he didn't become a deviant by turning to the underworld or the car park.

Secondly, its platform is the most nationally accepted, the most organized, and the most national in outlook. Like Shagari, Atiku is polygamous. And in the case of the latter, married from the North, South West and South East, his large household is a tapestry of national unity, a true study of Nigeria's diversity or heterogeneity.

But the most important factor for the former vice president is the political configuration. In 1979, when Shagari won the 1979 presidential election, Nigeria had five registered political parties. These were, in no particular order: NPN, PRP, UPN, NPP, and GNPP.

Three of the parties were predominantly northern and had northern presidential candidates. The NPN lined up Alh. Shehu Shagari, a self-effacing teacher from Old Sokoto; The PRP fielded a fiery radical in the person of Mallam Aminu Kano (Old Kano) and the GNPP gave his ticket to the quiet millionaire-businessman, Alh. Waziri Abraham. He hails from the former state of Borno. Shagari was Fulani; Aminu Kano was Hausa and Waziri Ibrahim was Kanuri. And all Muslims.

The northern parts have segmented the "region" into their catchment areas. NPN took over much of what is now the Northwest; the PRP took the former states of Kano and former Kaduna (still our current northwest; and the GNPP took what is now the northeast, i.e. the states of the ancient Borno and Gongola.

The southern parties were the NPP and the UPN, and naturally that was where the two had their greatest strengths. While the UPN sent the organizational genius Chief Obafemi Awolowo, the flamboyant speaker Dr. Nnamdi Azikiwe waved the NPP flag.

Awolowo was Yoruba, and swept through Yorubaland, what is now the South West. And Azikiwe, commonly called the Zik of Africa, took the Igbo states of old Anambra and old Imo. Today, the then nuclear power plant belt would be known as the Southeast.

The most powerful parties (NPN, UPN and NPP) have made inroads into other areas, so to speak. In addition to clearing North Central and Bauchi, the NPN also won Old Rivers and Old Cross River States. In total, Shagari/NPN won seven states, namely Sokoto, Niger, Bauchi, Benue, Kwara, Rivers and Cross River!

Awolowo/UPN ripped out Bendel State in what is now South-South to add Lagos, Ogun, Ondo and Oyo States to their tally. The nuclear power plant has also made a foray into the north-central, taking over Plateau State. Additionally, Imo and Anambra, Azikiwe now had three states in his kitty.

What the 1979 elections produced was a map/triad of Zowabia, with Shagari (North) leading with seven states; Awolowo, second with five states and Azikiwe last, with three states!

So, is the past unfolding right in front of us, and we don't know it? Is HE, Alh. Atiku Abubakar, the new Shehu Shagari? Like the NPN, the PDP is currently the only national party. The others are like political contraptions or driverless locomotives hastily assembled to seize power, massage personal egos, advance tribal hegemonies, or even enthrone fundamentalist theocracies.

And if he is the new Shagari, then we can unwind the whole historical reel like this: HE Bola Ahmed Tinubu, the ruling APC presidential candidate, is the new Awolowo; and HE Peter Obi, the Labor Party (LP) presidential candidate, is the new Azikiwe.

From the above, we can replace NPN/Shagari, UPN/Awo and NPP/Zik with PDP/Atiku, APC/Tinubu and Labor Party/Obi respectively. But we can expand it further: Former Kano State Governor Dr. Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso is the new Aminu Kano. This means that its NNPP is the new PRP. Take note that there is no Waziri Ibrahim or his GNPP here.

We return to the trio of Atiku, Tinubu and Obi. Besides being a northerner, Fulani and Muslim like Shagari, Atiku's upbringing...