Bitcoin May Need Another $1 Billion in On-Chain Losses Before New BTC Price Drops
BTC price losses are not yet severe enough to rival previous lows in the Bitcoin bear market, according to the data.< /p>
Market news
Bitcoin (BTC) holders may need to triple their on-chain losses for the price of BTC to reach a macro low.
According to market research firm Baro Virtual, the 2022 bear market is not yet tough enough to follow historical bearish trends.
Bitcoin losses total "only" $671 millionWith analysts predicting a return to $14,000 or lower for BTC/USD, where Bitcoin will bottom is one of the hottest topics in the space this month.< /p>
For Baro Virtual, who analyzed data from the on-chain analytics platform Whalemap, it may be a simple matter of arithmetic.
Taking Whalemap's Moving Profit and Loss (MPL) figures for on-chain BTC trades, he noted that in the past, macro BTC prices occurred once the losses of such trades equaled or exceeded to equivalent profits in the bull run that preceded them.
In other words, the chain losses must be equal to or greater than the chain gains of the previous bull run. Otherwise, in most cases, Bitcoin fell again later.
“Whalemap’s monthly MPL almost reliably in most cases determines the global $BTC floor,” Baro Virtual wrote in the comments on Twitter on Nov. 22.
"The condition is that the current loss level must be equal to or > the maximum profit level of the previous bull run."
Current realized losses are therefore not large enough to accommodate Bitcoin's historic capitulation trend, he argued, leaving the door open for further BTC price capitulation.
The amount needed, however, could mean that the ultimate macro bottom for Bitcoin is well below this week's two-year low of $15,480.
“Now the loss is $671 million, and the previous maximum profit is $1.3 billion to $1.7 billion,” the thread continues along with an annotated chart .
"Thus, losses of $629 million to $1.029 billion are still missing to confirm full surrender."
BTC price losses are not yet severe enough to rival previous lows in the Bitcoin bear market, according to the data.< /p>
Market news
Bitcoin (BTC) holders may need to triple their on-chain losses for the price of BTC to reach a macro low.
According to market research firm Baro Virtual, the 2022 bear market is not yet tough enough to follow historical bearish trends.
Bitcoin losses total "only" $671 millionWith analysts predicting a return to $14,000 or lower for BTC/USD, where Bitcoin will bottom is one of the hottest topics in the space this month.< /p>
For Baro Virtual, who analyzed data from the on-chain analytics platform Whalemap, it may be a simple matter of arithmetic.
Taking Whalemap's Moving Profit and Loss (MPL) figures for on-chain BTC trades, he noted that in the past, macro BTC prices occurred once the losses of such trades equaled or exceeded to equivalent profits in the bull run that preceded them.
In other words, the chain losses must be equal to or greater than the chain gains of the previous bull run. Otherwise, in most cases, Bitcoin fell again later.
“Whalemap’s monthly MPL almost reliably in most cases determines the global $BTC floor,” Baro Virtual wrote in the comments on Twitter on Nov. 22.
"The condition is that the current loss level must be equal to or > the maximum profit level of the previous bull run."
Current realized losses are therefore not large enough to accommodate Bitcoin's historic capitulation trend, he argued, leaving the door open for further BTC price capitulation.
The amount needed, however, could mean that the ultimate macro bottom for Bitcoin is well below this week's two-year low of $15,480.
“Now the loss is $671 million, and the previous maximum profit is $1.3 billion to $1.7 billion,” the thread continues along with an annotated chart .
"Thus, losses of $629 million to $1.029 billion are still missing to confirm full surrender."
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