Insecurity could deepen poverty and unemployment, says report
The country's insecurity problems that continued after 2022 could worsen poverty and high unemployment in 2023, according to a report by Augusto&Co, a research, rating company. credit and risk management.
The company said in its report, 'Perspective 2023: Nigeria, a Nation on the Precipice' that, "Furthermore, the challenge of insecurity in Nigeria will continue to be an issue. major in 2023. It worsened in 2022 and is now rampant in many parts of the country.
“The scale of the challenge will require a two-pronged approach, deploying resources to military artillery, personnel and intelligence; while addressing the deeper issues of widespread poverty, high unemployment and extreme levels of inequality. »
According to the report, the World Bank has revised down its economic growth projection for Nigeria to 2.9%, from 3.2% originally announced in June 2022.
He said Agusto & Co had a slightly more optimistic forecast, at 3%, and hoped GDP growth would be supported by election spending, improved oil production (at 1.3-1.4 mbpd19) and still high oil prices ($88bps20), but would be limited by weak investment and productivity.
How quickly Nigeria could stem rampant oil theft and vandalism would be crucial to increasing foreign exchange earnings and providing the CBN with enough ammunition to step up its foreign exchange market interventions, he said.
However, he added, he expects high global interest rates to continue to limit capital inflows and worsen monetary pressures in 2023.
The report says the likely restructuring of Ways and Means stock (estimated at N22.7 billion) in 2023 would likely stretch over several years to avoid a liquidity crunch, but that 'it would likely tighten credit conditions if it largely assumed domestic adoption by banks.
"It would also significantly increase debt servicing costs, as Ways and Means advances are expected to account for 30% (the largest portion) of Nigeria's outstanding debt of by May 2023,” he said.< /p>
He added that "the removal of subsidies and the consequent incentive for smuggling should finally end the confusion over how much gasoline is actually consumed in Nigeria and, in theory, should also fix Small oil imports (which account for 15% of the total import bill), saving valuable foreign currency.
“However, the launch of the 650,000 bpd capacity Dangote refinery in January 2023 could be a game-changer as it could completely eliminate oil imports from Nigeria. Much depends on the complete deregulation of gasoline prices, as the export market presents a significant opportunity that will be virtually impossible to pass up.
"The 60,000 bpd Port Harcourt refinery is also expected to be completed and returned to service in Q1 23."
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The country's insecurity problems that continued after 2022 could worsen poverty and high unemployment in 2023, according to a report by Augusto&Co, a research, rating company. credit and risk management.
The company said in its report, 'Perspective 2023: Nigeria, a Nation on the Precipice' that, "Furthermore, the challenge of insecurity in Nigeria will continue to be an issue. major in 2023. It worsened in 2022 and is now rampant in many parts of the country.
“The scale of the challenge will require a two-pronged approach, deploying resources to military artillery, personnel and intelligence; while addressing the deeper issues of widespread poverty, high unemployment and extreme levels of inequality. »
According to the report, the World Bank has revised down its economic growth projection for Nigeria to 2.9%, from 3.2% originally announced in June 2022.
He said Agusto & Co had a slightly more optimistic forecast, at 3%, and hoped GDP growth would be supported by election spending, improved oil production (at 1.3-1.4 mbpd19) and still high oil prices ($88bps20), but would be limited by weak investment and productivity.
How quickly Nigeria could stem rampant oil theft and vandalism would be crucial to increasing foreign exchange earnings and providing the CBN with enough ammunition to step up its foreign exchange market interventions, he said.
However, he added, he expects high global interest rates to continue to limit capital inflows and worsen monetary pressures in 2023.
The report says the likely restructuring of Ways and Means stock (estimated at N22.7 billion) in 2023 would likely stretch over several years to avoid a liquidity crunch, but that 'it would likely tighten credit conditions if it largely assumed domestic adoption by banks.
"It would also significantly increase debt servicing costs, as Ways and Means advances are expected to account for 30% (the largest portion) of Nigeria's outstanding debt of by May 2023,” he said.< /p>
He added that "the removal of subsidies and the consequent incentive for smuggling should finally end the confusion over how much gasoline is actually consumed in Nigeria and, in theory, should also fix Small oil imports (which account for 15% of the total import bill), saving valuable foreign currency.
“However, the launch of the 650,000 bpd capacity Dangote refinery in January 2023 could be a game-changer as it could completely eliminate oil imports from Nigeria. Much depends on the complete deregulation of gasoline prices, as the export market presents a significant opportunity that will be virtually impossible to pass up.
"The 60,000 bpd Port Harcourt refinery is also expected to be completed and returned to service in Q1 23."
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