News Analysis: Can Infantino's FIFA really drive 45% revenue growth in the new World Cup cycle?

By David Owen

February 22 - When it came to earnings, Sepp Blatter's FIFA tended to under-promise and over-deliver.

Gianni Infantino seems to have few such problems. From the moment when, some seven years ago, the current FIFA President rose to prominence with a glossy manifesto stating that "as a benchmark, and after all necessary adjustments, I believe that FIFA should to be able to easily earmark at least 50% of its income for direct distribution to its member associations for football development projects,” he seemed more than ready to make big statements. For context, I calculated at the time that with the budget then in effect, only 18% of FIFA's projected revenue for 2015-2018 had been so designated.

So one could argue that last week's eye-catching $11 billion revenue projection for the current World Cup cycle through 2026 fits a pattern. This, after all, would be a 45% lead over the $7.57 billion actually generated in the last cycle, which memorably culminated just before Christmas in Qatar with Lionel Messi finally winning a World Cup and capping his extraordinary career.

The big question, then, is whether such an impressive rate of growth, at a time when many other sports bodies are struggling to generate strong revenue growth, is somehow achievable.

He'll be a tough target, that's for sure, with one character in particular that jumps out at the reader; but there are a number of reasons why, on reflection, it doesn't seem unattainable to me.

For one thing, Infantino's former employer, European soccer governing body UEFA, with its greatest exposure to elite club play, has been growing at this rate for some time. . According to my calculations, UEFA's revenue growth for 2013-2017, compared to 2009-2013, reached 55%; growth for 2017-2021 compared to 2013-2017 reached 37%.

In light of these numbers, it's hardly surprising that Infantino has been fighting for a while to get a bigger slice of the elite club football pie for FIFA. The current plan calls for a significantly expanded Club World Cup starting in 2025. If this materializes, the new tournament would make a much larger contribution to FIFA's revenue than previous Club World Cups.

Let's now break down this $11 billion budget into some of its building blocks.

Television is expected to make the largest contribution as usual, with $4.26 billion. This represents an increase of approximately 24% over recorded TV revenues for the 2019-2022 cycle.

But the 2026 World Cup is turning into a leviathan of 48 teams. More teams means more games. Seen in terms of revenue per game, that $4.26 billion budget simply requires television rights money to tread water. You could be forgiven for considering this an undemanding proposition.

In terms of marketing or sponsorship, the $2.69 billion budget for 2023-2026 would require 50% cycle-over-cycle growth to achieve. It's been a long, long time since FIFA, plagued by image issues, has generated growth of this magnitude from this particular revenue stream. The $1.795 billion earned in 2019-22 was only up 8% from 2015-2018, less than 2% more than the 2011-2014 figure.

You could certainly take inspiration from this recent history and conclude that a sudden jump to 50% growth seems unlikely. Yet you might also think that other top sporting bodies - the International Olympic Committee (IOC), for example - have done well on sponsorship lately, that the worm will turn at some point and that if you're aiming for 50% growth, then the North American sponsorship market is probably the best place to do it.

Overall, this marketing budget seems harder to fill than the figure shown on TV, but I certainly wouldn't consider it out of reach.

That brings us to the new budget figure that can't help but jump out at you: $3.1 billion from hospitality rights and ticket sales, more than triple the 949.1 million dollars generated by the same source of income in 2019-2022.

This scale of increase amounts to a paradigm shift; if FIFA is seriously short of the $11 billion it is currently budgeting for, you sense that a lot of the shortfall is likely to pile up here.

Once again, certain factors will work in favor of FIFA.

The 2026 World Cup will not only involve more matches than any previous World Cup, but also, if the last tournament held in North America - 1994 - is any guide, large crowds. This 1994 World Cup, held in the United States, still has the largest total attendance of the 22 such competitions held since 1930, with over 3.5 million

The 2026 tournament will also be the first to feature three host nations – the United States, Mexico and Canada – each helping to generate interest in the event.

It's also worth pointing out that two of the...