SpaceX has been bidding against itself for NASA science missions for some time

Enlarge / An Atlas V rocket launches the GOES-T mission for NASA's Launch Services Program on March 1 2022. ULA

On Friday, NASA closed the bidding process to select a launch vehicle for an upcoming Earth science mission to measure sea level change, Sentinel-6B. The mission is expected to launch into low Earth orbit in about four years, and the space agency is finalizing its choice of rocket.

These bidding processes are secret to protect the competitive interests of bidders in terms of price and capacity. However, realistically, there is no mystery as to who will win the Sentinel-6B contract. Like the spacecraft's twin, Sentinel-6A, we can expect this mission to launch on a Falcon 9 rocket sometime in 2026.

Indeed, at present, there are no other bidders for NASA's medium and large science missions beyond SpaceX and its Falcon rocket fleet.

The offer is "withdrawn"

In response to questions about this lack of competition for its science missions, including Sentinel-6B, NASA declined to provide answers to Ars' questions. Instead, spokesperson Leejay Lockhart released the following statement: "NASA is unable to share the number of offers or waiver request information as they are considered to be sensitive to the competition."

However, it seems likely that at least the last three awards under NASA's Launch Services II contract have all seen SpaceX bid against itself. United Launch Alliance chief executive Tory Bruno confirmed this himself after NASA announced in September 2021 that the GOES-U satellite would be launched on a Falcon Heavy rocket. Bruno said his company "withdrew" its offer after all of its Atlas V rockets were sold.

A source has confirmed that United Launch Alliance also did not bid for the Nancy Grace Roman Space Telescope launch, which NASA announced in July 2022 it had awarded to SpaceX, nor for the Sentinel-6B contract, for which the tender closed on September 30.

This lack of competition dates back to the period from 2005 to 2015, when NASA was heavily dependent on the United Launch Alliance and its Delta and Atlas rockets to carry out its science missions in space. SpaceX broke that monopoly when it launched the Jason-3 mission for NASA and NOAA in January 2016. Partly in response to that competition, and partly due to a desire to end its reliance on engines. Russian rocket companies, United Launch Alliance is ending production of both its Atlas and Delta rockets in favor of what it intends to be a more competitive American-made rocket, Vulcan.

Not a lot of fleet

When NASA science programs or NOAA want to launch a spacecraft, they turn to NASA's Launch Services Program, which is responsible for providing "safe, reliable, cost-effective, and safe" launch services. delays". In effect, the Launch Services Program acts as a broker, matching spacecraft with the optimal rockets. The primary method NASA has for this is the “NASA Launch Services Contract II,” which is essentially a pool of NASA-approved rockets eligible to bid for science missions. Most science launches, with the exception of specials like the James Webb Space Telescope launch on a European rocket, are rewarded this way.

In its brochure for the Launch Services Program, NASA announces a "launcher fleet" available for science missions. But in reality, it is misleading. Two of the rockets, the Pegasus XL and Minotaur-C vehicles, are only suitable for small payloads and rarely fly. Northrop Grumman's Pegasus rocket has only flown one science mission in the last five years for NASA, the 281kg ICON spacecraft in 2019. Northrop's Minotaur-C rocket failed on its last two NASA launches in 2009 and 2011, and will almost certainly never be selected again. The Antares rocket is not available for scientific missions because it relies on Russian engines and will soon be retired.