War and disease could kill 85,000 Gazans in 6 months

An escalation of the war in Gaza could lead to the deaths of 85,000 Palestinians from injuries and illnesses over the next six months, in the worst of three situations modeled by eminent epidemiologists. to understand the potential death toll from the conflict.

These deaths would add to the more than 29,000 deaths in Gaza that local authorities have attributed to the conflict since it began. exploded. started in October. The estimate represents an "excess death", higher than would have been expected had there been no war.

In A second scenario, assuming there is no change in the current level of fighting or humanitarian access, there could be 58,260 additional deaths in the enclave over the next six months, according to researchers at Johns Hopkins University and the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine.

This figure could rise to 66,720 if there were outbreaks of infectious diseases such as cholera, according to their analysis.

Even in the best of the three possibilities considered by the research The team described - an immediate and lasting ceasefire without epidemic of infectious disease - that another 6,500 Gazans could die in the next six months as a direct result of the war, according to the analysis.

The population of the strip Gaza before the war was 2.2 million.

“This is not a political message or plea,” said Dr. Francesco Checchi, professor of epidemiology and international health at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine.

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