Yes, Boeing's Starliner spacecraft could really fly astronauts this year

Enlarge / Boeing Orbital Flight Test-2 mission launch May 19, 2022. Trevor Mahlman

Five weeks have passed since the return of Boeing's Starliner spacecraft after a largely successful test flight to the International Space Station, and the company continues to review mission data alongside engineers from the NASA.

So far, there have been no significant events. In fact, sources say Starliner's relatively clean performance has raised the possibility that the vehicle could make its first crewed flight this year in December.

This mission, called Crew Flight Test, will likely carry two astronauts to the space station. If successful, this would pave the way for long-duration operational missions to the space station in 2023 and give NASA a coveted second way to send astronauts into space.

Two weeks ago, NASA publicly announced that veteran astronauts Butch Wilmore and Suni Williams would be part of the main crew of this test flight. NASA also said a short-duration mission with two astronaut test pilots is sufficient to meet all test goals for the flight test. However, the agency added, this mission could be extended or shortened depending on the station's staffing needs. For example, NASA said it could even add an astronaut and extend the mission if the need arises.

According to NASA's internal schedules, however, it looks like the agency could opt for a shorter six-day trip. According to a revised schedule this week, the Starliner test flight showed a launch date of December 8, with subsequent docking with the space station from December 9 to December 14.

This date is far from being set in stone. It is subject to adjustment for a variety of reasons, including the ongoing review of data from Starliner's first test flight in May, as well as docking port availability on the space station. However, the fact that such a date now appears on the calendar indicates a reasonable possibility that Starliner will make a second flight this year.

A NASA spokesman, Josh Finch, said the agency is not ready to officially set a launch date for Boeing's Crew Flight Test.

"Boeing is working to get the hardware ready for the company's crewed flight test this year," Finch said. “The Starliner team is in the process of providing the first uncrewed flight test data to NASA and jointly determining the work ahead before crewed flight. Engineering and program reviews are continuing, culminating in an assessment of the launch schedule toward the end of July based on spacecraft readiness, space station planning needs, and eastern range availability."

Following this assessment, Finch said, NASA plans to provide a status update, which will likely include a launch target.

One of the main factors is the availability of the docking port. There are two ports on the space station equipped with an "international docking adapter" and they must be shared by Crew Dragon, Cargo Dragon 2 and SpaceX's Starliner. This summer and fall, NASA currently has three SpaceX mission flights that will use these ports: the CRS-25 and -26 cargo missions and the Crew-5 launch. Currently, however, a docking port is available from December 1 to January 14. After that, SpaceX's CRS-27 cargo mission would need the spare port.

Assuming there are no more major slippages in the launch of SpaceX vehicles and assuming Starliner gets a healthy bill of health from its review of the data, this window likely corresponds to when Boeing and NASA will opt for the next Starliner flight.