Leinster v Connacht: Handicap rises to -21 as injured visitors face Aviva reality

URC Day 9: Saturday January 3, Aviva Stadium (KO 5:30 p.m.). Live on TG4 and Premier Sports.

Leinster and Connacht meet at the Aviva on Saturday evening, and the gap between the two teams is not only highlighted by form and history. The betting line was Leicester -16 before the teams are announced. Once the selections were abandoned, they quickly moved to -21 – and it’s not hard to see why.

Why the market moved

Connacht struggled not only to win games, but to stay there for full 80-minute spells. The worrying pattern this season has been collapses: periods where the opposition were scoring points in batches and Connacht couldn’t stop the bleeding.

Dragons: brand 40+ no response in 40 minutes.
Ulster: brand 26 points in 25 minutes.

It’s the sort of tendency that is punished at the Aviva, where Leinster rarely take their foot off the throat once they gain momentum.

Leinster team news

Dan Sheehan captains Leinster from hooker, with Andrew Porter and Thomas Clarkson either side of him in the front row. Joe McCarthy and Brian Deeny are in the second row, while the return of Will Connors (first departure since October) is remarkable, alongside Diarmuid Mangan and Jack Conan.

In the back, Sam Prendergast is named at the back with Jamison Gibson-Park at nine. Charlie Tector and Hugh Cooney team up in midfield, Tommy O’Brien and Joshua Kenny start on the wings and Ciarán Frawley continues at the back.

Leinster left with a 6 to 2 benches distributedwith Max Deegan and Josh van der Flier among the forward reinforcements – the kind of late impact that often turns a “close enough” scoreline into hiding.

There’s also a subplot here: it will be great fun to see how many members of this Leinster Round 23 will wear Connacht colors next season. Two seems to be a minimum.

Connacht team news

Connacht’s selection looks a little strange in places – particularly outside the 9/10 axis – but injuries are clearly the cause. With Dave Heffernan and Jack Carty out, Dylan Tierney-Martin starts at hooker and Josh Ioane comes in at half-back, forming a new half-back pairing with Matthew Devine.

Bundee Aki continues inside centre, David Hawkshaw starts outside him, Chay Mullins returns to the right wing, Finn Treacy is on the left and Sam Gilbert remains at full back. Up front, Denis Buckley and Finlay Bealham anchor the scrum, with Joe Joyce and David O’Connor in the engine room. Cian Prendergast captains a back row that includes Josh Murphy and Sean Jansen.

List of injured: the scale of the problem

Connacht don’t have much of their squad, and that runs through the entire spine – front row, half-back, back row depth and wide pace:

Hugh Gavin
James Hurley Langton
Shane Jennings
Oisin McCormack
Jack Aungier
Caolan Blade
Shayne Bolton
Oisin Dowling
Mack Hansen
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Sean Naughton
Byron Ralston
Colm Reilly

Add in the patched-up aspect of the selection and the market movement starts to look less like an overreaction and more like a correction.

How the game could play out

Connacht will have their moments – they always do – and Bundee Aki will drag them into the fight. But the worry is the same that has haunted them this season: what happens when Leinster gather momentum and Connacht are forced into repeated exits from the depths?

If Leinster score early, gain territory and start pushing Connacht back, it has the potential to go south quickly. The Aviva is not a place where you can survive long periods without the ball, and the Leinster bench usually turns the last 25 minutes into a different sport.

Likely outcome

Leinster 45-7 Connacht

It sounds wild, but with the injury list, the lack of continuity and the way Connacht have been hit for big spells with no response, it’s hard to see how they stay this tight.

And I hope that when Leinster come to Galway for the opening of the new clan standConnacht are looking at a much shorter injury list – because this is the match you want at full strength, with a real advantage, not in survival mode.

Teams