When the Seattle Seahawks and Los Angeles Rams meet Sunday night for the NFC Championship, it will — by at least one measure — be the best matchup in the NFL in nearly five decades.
“By DVOA, the NFC Championship Game is essentially the best NFL game in the last 47 years, by far,” Aaron Schatz, head of FTN Fantasy analytics, posted on ahead of the match.
DVOA, for those unfamiliar, stands for “Defense Adjusted Value Compared to Average.” What it measures is “the effectiveness of a team by comparing the success of each play to a league average based on situation and opponent.” In simpler terms, it is a measure of the quality of a team, weighted according to the situation and the opposing team.
And the Rams and Seahawks have the highest combined DVOA among any two playoff teams in the last 47 years.
If the analytics don’t excite or bother you, don’t worry, because there are plenty more storylines to come for Sunday’s game. This is a matchup between division rivals who played two incredibly close games in the regular season (the combined victory margin was three points). It’s a matchup between an offensive prodigy (Los Angeles head coach Sean McVay) and a defensive genius (Seattle head coach Mike Macdonald). It’s also a battle between two highly drafted quarterbacks (Matthew Stafford of the Rams and Sam Darnold of the Seahawks) in very different areas of their careers who both still have something to prove.
This match basically has everything you could want in a football match.
The Rams enter as an offensive juggernaut, leading the league in the regular season in yards per game, passing yards per game and points per game (30.5).
The Seahawks, on the other hand, enter as defensive stoppers. Seattle allowed the sixth-fewest yards per game in the regular season and the fewest points per game (17.2).
Both head coaches were able to maximize their rosters largely through unique strategies. The Rams have achieved this by using “13 personnel,” or formations using three tight ends. Los Angeles used these formations at a rate of 30.5% in the regular season, compared to the league average of 5.3%.
The Rams have been successful in using such formations because their size helps them run, while Stafford has also been successful in throwing even though there are fewer receivers on the field.
‘Thirteen personnel cause a lot of problems for’ defense, Los Angeles tight end Terrance Ferguson told The Athletic in December, adding that it forces defenses to choose between putting more linebackers or more defensive backs on the field. “It makes our job easier. It’s the mismatches that the 13 staff creates with the big bodies that block the safeties, and if you want to send big guys there, we can run routes as well.”
The Seahawks, however, are one of the few teams equipped to handle three-tight end formations. Seattle played the most snaps during the regular season with at least five defensive backs on the field, but the Seahawks still managed to stop the run despite their size in favor of speed. That’s largely thanks to cornerback (and rookie) Nick Emmanwori, who can cover receivers while tackling like a linebacker.
“It’s a group that can play what we call a lighter group because they select guys that they have a vision for. Nick has done a heck of a job,” McVay said during the week. “He plays outside linebacker for them, he plays safety, he plays star, he plays dime spot. They move him all over the place, and they can be a dime, but they can basically feature a bunch of different base structures because of his versatility.”
Macdonald said in December of his rookie’s unique abilities: “We’ve never really had a player like him, so we’re kind of making it up as we go along.” »
The chess match between the coaches will ultimately determine who wins the Super Bowl. In November, the Rams ironically won the defensive thriller, 21-19. Seattle, meanwhile, won the shootout, scoring a 38-37 overtime victory in an instant classic in December.
Sunday’s game will also be a legacy moment for the quarterbacks. Will Stafford go to another Super Bowl and add to the Hall of Fame resume he built in Los Angeles? Or will Darnold prove himself on a big stage against a defense that has always troubled him?
All the strategies will be revealed and all the questions will be answered in what is one of the most intriguing NFL games of all time.
“It’s going to be a hell of an atmosphere and environment,” McVay said. “We’re excited about that. Those are the times when you feel most alive as a competitor, and we have to go there against a damn good football team. But I wouldn’t expect any less in the NFC Championship if you’re hoping to get to the Super Bowl.”
Rohan Nadkarni is a sports reporter for NBC News.
