Iran ceasefire deal offers Trump a way out of war – but at a high cost

4 hours ago

In the end, calmer heads prevailed – at least for the moment.

At 6:32 p.m. Washington time, President Donald Trump posted on his social media account that the United States and Iran were “very far along” in reaching a “final” peace agreement and that he had agreed to a two-week ceasefire to allow negotiations to continue.

It wasn’t exactly last minute, but with Trump’s looming deadline of 8:00 p.m. EDT (00:00 GMT Wednesday) to reach a deal or the United States would launch massive strikes against Iran’s energy and transportation infrastructure, it came close.

All of this is contingent on Iran suspending hostilities and fully opening the Strait of Hormuz to commercial maritime traffic, something the regime says it wants to do, while insisting it still exercises “dominance” over the waterway.

The deal allowed Trump to extricate himself from what was shaping up to be a perilous choice – either step up on his promise that “an entire civilization would die tonight” or back down and undermine his credibility. However, the American president may have only granted himself a temporary reprieve.

The United States and the Iranians will now engage in negotiations over the next two weeks, buying time to try to reach a permanent settlement. The journey is likely to be strewn with pitfalls, but after hours, the price of a barrel of oil fell below $100 for the first time in several days and US stock futures soared. There seems to be a sense of optimism that the worst is behind us.

Even this type of progress was far from certain, as recently as Tuesday morning, when Trump threatened the death of Iranian civilization, “never to bring it back.”

It’s unclear whether such a staggering threat from a U.S. president pressured Iran to accept the kind of ceasefire it had previously rejected. What is clear is that Trump’s stunning and incendiary statement – ​​just two days after a similar obscenity-laced demand for social truth – is unlike anything a modern American president has ever done or implied.

And even if the two-week ceasefire results in permanent peace, the war in Iran — and Trump’s recent words — may have fundamentally changed how the rest of the world views the United States.

A nation that once presented itself as a force for stability in the world is now shaking the foundations of the international order. A president who seemed to have enjoyed breaking norms and traditions in domestic politics is now doing the same on the world stage.

Democrats were quick to condemn Trump’s comments on Tuesday, with some going so far as to call for his impeachment.

“It is clear that the president has continued to decline and is not fit to lead,” MP Joaquín Castro wrote on X.

Chuck Schumer, the top Democrat in the US Senate, said any Republican who did not join the vote to end the war in Iran would “bear all the consequences of everything that happens”.

Although many members of Trump’s own party stood by their president, that support was far from the near-universal support he often enjoys.

Austin Scott, a Republican congressman from Georgia and ranking member of the House Armed Services Committee, sharply criticized Trump’s threats about the death of a civilization.

“The president’s comments are counterproductive,” he told the BBC, “and I don’t agree with them.”

Wisconsin Sen. Ron Johnson, usually a Trump loyalist, said it would be a “huge mistake” if Trump continued his bombing campaign. Rep. Nathaniel Moran of Texas wrote on social media that he did not support “the destruction of an ‘entire civilization’.”

“This is not who we are,” he wrote, “and it is not consistent with the principles that have long guided America.”

Alaska Sen. Lisa Murkowski, who has frequently broken with the president, was equally blunt, writing that the president’s threat “cannot be dismissed as an attempt to influence negotiations with Iran.”

However, it is likely that the White House will respond that the leverage worked. And for a president facing declining poll numbers, a growing number of critics within his own party and an economy struggling with rising energy prices, any exit from the conflict within the conflict will likely be a relief.

In his Truth Social article announcing the ceasefire, Trump said the United States had “met and exceeded” all of its military objectives.

The Iranian army has been significantly degraded. Although his Islamic fundamentalist regime remains in power, many of its top leaders have been killed in bombings.

However, at present, many of the United States’ stated goals remain in doubt. The future of Iran’s enriched uranium – the foundation of its nuclear weapons program – is unknown. The nation still exerts influence over regional proxies, such as the Houthi rebels in Yemen.

And even if Iran fully opens Hormuz – without conditioning passage on tolls or other payments – its ability to control this key geopolitical chokepoint is clearer than ever.

In a statement after Trump’s ceasefire message, Iranian Foreign Minister Seyed Abbas Araghchi said Iran would end its “defensive operations” and allow safe passage through Hormuz “via coordination with the Iranian armed forces.” He added that the United States had accepted the “general framework” of Iran’s 10-point plan.

This plan calls for the withdrawal of American military forces from the region, the lifting of economic sanctions against Iran, the payment of compensation for war damages and the authorization for Iran to maintain its control over Hormuz. It’s hard to imagine Trump actually agreeing to any of these conditions — a sign that the next two weeks of negotiations could prove dangerous.

But for now, this is a partial political victory for Trump. He made a dramatic threat and got the desired result. But the ceasefire is a reprieve, not a permanent settlement.

The long-term cost of the president’s words and actions, and of the war in general, has yet to be fully assessed.

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