The fuel most Americans never think about could become the biggest economic consequence of the Iran conflict. While gasoline price headlines, diesel silently powers the trucks, farms, freight trains and heavy equipment that keep America’s economy moving.
From groceries on supermarket shelves to Amazon packages on your doorstep to materials used to build new homes, diesel is integrated into almost every step of the supply chain. As prices rise, businesses face higher transportation costs that economists say often ripple through the economy, driving up the cost of everyday consumer goods.
Diesel prices, which averaged $3.56 per gallon in January 2025, rose to $5.13 as a result of the Iran conflict, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration.
A fully loaded tractor-trailer typically gets only 6 to 7 miles per gallon of diesel, according to Department of Energy data. Filling its approximately 250-gallon tanks can cost more than $1,280 at current prices.
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“We’re all focused on gasoline because at the end of the day we’re consumers and prices at the pump are very visible. But what we don’t think about is the price of diesel, which is the benchmark fuel for the U.S. economy and especially for key sectors,” Bernard Yaros, chief U.S. economist for Oxford Economics, told Fox News Digital.
“From an inflationary standpoint, I’m very concerned about the recent rise in diesel prices as it relates to the cost of food or grocery store prices,” Yaros said.
“Take the food industry, for example. Diesel powers irrigation pumps, tractors in the fields, and trucks that transport food from the farm to your local grocery store. It is part of every level of food production in the United States.”
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A person is seen grabbing the diesel fuel gun at a gas station. (Rebecca Noble/Bloomberg/Getty Images/Getty Images)
An energy sector source, who requested anonymity because they were not authorized to speak publicly, said diesel’s recent surge shows how quickly geopolitical conflicts can seep into the broader economy.
“The vast majority of price movements you have seen in diesel markets over the past five months have been a direct result of conflict in Iran and specifically the closure of the Strait of Hormuz,” the source told Fox News Digital.
The Strait of Hormuz, a narrow waterway between Iran, Oman and the United Arab Emirates, is one of the world’s most important energy chokepoints. About 20 million barrels of oil pass through it every day, and disruptions can quickly reduce fuel supplies and drive up diesel prices.
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A satellite image shows the Strait of Hormuz, a key maritime passage connecting the Persian Gulf to the Gulf of Oman, vital for global energy supplies. (Amanda Macias/Fox News Digital/Getty Images)
Even if tensions in the Middle East ease, diesel prices may not quickly return to pre-conflict levels.
“Refineries don’t process crude instantly,” the source explained. “Often what you fill your car with today was refined a week and a half ago and was produced two months before.”
This lag means that rising diesel costs may continue to ripple through the economy even after crude oil prices stabilize, forcing consumers to pay more for groceries, deliveries and other everyday goods long after headlines from the Middle East begin to fade.
