Greater Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham is expected to challenge Starmer for leadership of the Labor Party.
A video screen declaring “VOTE ANDY FOR US” and depicting Andy Burnham adorns the side of a house in Ashton-in-Makerfield, England, June 10, 2026.(Christophe Furlong/Getty Images) On June 18, an unusual but potentially important vote will take place in a little-known parliamentary constituency on the outskirts of Manchester in northwest England. The outcome of the Makerfield affair, as the area is known, could quickly lead to the selection of a new British prime minister.
The ruling Labor Party’s candidate is Andy Burnham, Mayor of Greater Manchester. If he wins, Burnham is expected to quickly challenge Prime Minister Keir Starmer, who has been badly hurt by a series of mayhem and defeats in regional elections. “If I get your support, I will seek to represent you at the highest possible level,” he told a BBC debate in Makerfield.
Burnham, 56, a career politician, gave up his parliamentary seat in the region to become mayor in 2017. Now, at a time when London’s central government is in disgrace, he is trying to parlay his association with Manchester, the star of an otherwise lackluster British economy, into the premiership. “I was the pioneer of a new policy,” he said during a recent televised debate hosted by the BBC. Burnham said he would bring the long-term “more collaborative” approach he calls “Manchesterism” back to the capital to “restore public trust”.
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The Makerfield vote will also be a test of whether Labor can resist the rise of Reform UK, the British analogue to Donald Trump’s MAGA movement, which made large gains in May’s local elections. With Reform leading in recent national polls, party leader Nigel Farage, who was instrumental in Britain’s decision to leave the European Union a decade ago, is now also seen as a possible future prime minister. Farage getting the role “would obviously have all kinds of impacts in terms of the country’s foreign policy, its stance on Europe and its relationship with the United States,” said Tim Bale, professor of politics at Queen Mary University of London.
The fact that these elections are taking place is proof of the volatility of contemporary British politics, which has produced five prime ministers in the last seven years.
Less than two years ago, on July 4, 2024, Starmer led Labor to its first general election victory in almost 14 years, winning a large majority of 411 of the 650 seats in Parliament. Yet the goodwill Starmer gained from that victory dissipated at a rate that surprised analysts. What is certain is that Starmer is now extremely unpopular and a series of bad moves have contributed to this. Early in his term, Starmer scrapped a popular subsidy for older people’s winter heating costs. He later appointed controversial political figure Peter Mandelson to the prestigious ambassadorship in Washington, then fired him after embarrassing revelations about the envoy’s close ties to the late financier Jeffrey Epstein.
The May elections benefited not only the Reformists but also other parties, notably the Greens, now focused on inequality, and the Welsh nationalist party Plaid Cymru. The traditional British duopoly between Labor and the right-wing Conservatives has fragmented. For example, a May survey of voters by YouGov, a polling company, was dominated by the Reform Party, with 24 percent, and showed four other parties with 14 percent or more. Labor polled just 17 percent.
Labor’s defeats sparked a wave of soul-searching and a handful of resignations by ministers in Starmer’s government. “Where we need vision, we have a void,” Wes Streeting, the health secretary, wrote in his departure letter to Starmer. Streeting, another possible – although unlikely – candidate for prime minister, said it was clear the prime minister would not lead Labor in the next election, which must take place by 2029. Starmer is resisting those pressing him to set a departure date.
The Makerfield election was triggered when incumbent Josh Simons resigned last month to give Burnham the opportunity to win the parliamentary seat he needs to challenge Starmer.
Burnham will not need a national election to become prime minister. He can force a leadership contest by securing the support of 20 percent, or 81, of Labor MPs. “He’s really going to be riding the crest of a wave, as far as many Labor MPs are concerned,” Bale said.
Although Makerfield, a collection of town centers and former coal mines, was once a Labor constituency, its characteristics now favor the Reform. Residents are almost all white and of British origin. The region voted overwhelmingly to leave the European Union in 2016. Brexit voters now make up the core of support for reformists, analysts say.
“If it was any other Labor candidate, you would be sure he would lose,” said Scarlett Maguire, founder of Merlin Strategy, a polling company, referring to Burnham. Burnham’s roots in the area appear to stand him in good stead. Although the groundwork for Manchester’s success was largely laid before his election as mayor, he can take credit for it.
John Horton, a former city official who is now vice-president for innovation and civic engagement at the University of Manchester, remembers a city that seemed “stuck in terminal post-industrial decline” a few decades ago transformed into a vibrant urban environment. Helped by the notoriety of two major professional soccer teams, Manchester City and Manchester United, the city’s leaders “were able to go international and sell Manchester as an investment destination,” Horton said.
The efforts paid off, with Manchester moving away from low-value manufacturing and toward higher-paying jobs in law, broadcasting and information technology. Since 2008, Manchester has created more such jobs than any region in Britain except London, according to a recent study by Oxford Economics, a research firm.
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Although voters and political opponents worry about Burnham using Makerfield as a springboard, a recent voting intention sample by Survation, a polling company, gave Burnham about 49 percent of the vote, a 10-point lead over Reform candidate Robert Kenyon, an independent plumber. Survation shows Rebecca Shepherd, the candidate for Restore Britain, a harder-line wing of the Reform Party, helping Burnham by winning 8% of the vote.
Burnham is considered a better communicator than Starmer, but whether he has the answers to Britain’s national discontents is another question. Sluggish economic growth appears to have played a major role in voters’ willingness to abandon established political parties, not only in Britain but in other European countries such as France and Germany. Starmer promised voters change, but he has so far failed to deliver the punch needed to raise revenues and fund major improvements in public services like healthcare. Burnham appears to be tacking to the left, suggesting he will provide additional funding for services such as aged care, potentially financed by higher taxes on property and stock sales.
Its capacity to make major changes appears limited. Britain already has some of the highest interest rates of major industrialized countries, which likely limits its ability to increase public spending. In a warning shot, interest rates on government bonds jumped last month as the likelihood of a Burnham-led government appeared to increase.
“Among advanced economies, only Italy shows similarly poor debt dynamics,” write analysts at Oxford Economics. Leaving the European Union, Britain’s biggest trading partner, has hurt industries from car manufacturing to finance and reduced the size of the economy by about 6 to 8 percent, according to a National Bureau of Economic Research working paper released late last year.
Burnham, however, has played down his bid to re-enter the European Union soon, although he says he would like to see Britain return in his lifetime. “There are still some very bad headwinds,” said Tim Leunig, an economist who has advised two British chancellors of the Exchequer.
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Stanley Reed Stanley Reed is a London-based writer on energy, business and the environment.
