Ships in the Strait of Hormuz, seen from Musandam, Oman, June 15, 2026.
Stringer | Reuters
It will take weeks to clear the backlog of ships in the Strait of Hormuz, industry executives and shipping experts have warned, as the critical waterway is set to reopen.
Oil prices initially fell below $80 a barrel following news that the United States and Iran had agreed to a deal to end their war, as traders expected supplies of oil, LNG and other goods to be restored after nearly four months of war, leading to a maritime logjam of ships unable or refusing to transit the strait.
US President Donald Trump and Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian signed the memorandum of understanding Wednesday evening. He calls for the complete reopening of the Strait of Hormuz without toll through Iran for at least 60 days.
But restoring enough physical supply to the market to keep prices stable below $80 could take weeks, or even months in some cases, market watchers told CNBC.
Gulf operators, port authorities and energy companies remain in a wait-and-see situation, with key logistics and security issues still unresolved.
“The most likely scenario is a gradual restart, with some form of traffic management mechanism involving Iran and Oman,” Adam Sharpe, vice president of editorial at Lloyd’s List Intelligence, told CNBC.
“But the unresolved questions are important: whether ships need prior authorization, whether Iran will impose service fees, whether foreign naval escorts are accepted, and whether mines or other residual risks require a mine clearance process.”
Why reopening the Strait of Hormuz is complicatedEven after a political agreement to reopen the strait, industry players say the resumption of traffic will be complex and phased.
“There is no precedent for restarting Hormuz after a disruption of this nature,” Sharpe said. “A conservative working hypothesis would be a gradual acceleration rather than an immediate return to more than 100 daily transits.”
Before the war, Lloyd’s List Intelligence data showed weekly cargo ship transits through the Strait of Hormuz of around 650 to 770 vessels, which equates to around 90 to 110 transits per day in both directions.
Business intelligence provider QuantCube Technology told CNBC that its shipping data has yet to show a significant increase in oil exports from Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates or Iraq.
In Saudi Arabia’s Dammam region, which includes the Ras Tanura export complex, ships were loaded and sent offshore to wait, according to Alan Lemangnen, senior economist at QuantCube.
“Since June 8, tankers departing from Dammam have spent significantly more time waiting at anchor before departure,” he told CNBC. “This suggests that a line of ships may have formed offshore rather than at port facilities.”
Most successful crude flows from the UAE through Hormuz involved “darkness,” in which ships turned off GPS systems to avoid detection. Kpler said clandestine shipping activities would likely continue until Washington and Tehran reach a clear agreement on freedom of navigation.
How big is the delay in Hormuz shipments?Even if energy supply flows recover quickly, supply chain disruptions could persist. In a note published Monday, Kpler estimates that 118 oil tankers are stuck in the Persian Gulf..
Kpler analysts estimate the backlog could take 10 to 15 days to clear, but cautioned that this would not mean a full recovery. The initial impulse, they assert in the note, would be “purely mechanical,” producing “an early increase in transits without increasing the underlying flow.”
If hundreds of ships are waiting to transit the strait, prioritization becomes crucial. Industry experts expect oil tankers and LNG carriers to be given priority access due to their importance in global markets, which could lead to longer delays for shipments of containers and other cargo.
“The prioritization may not be purely commercial,” Sharpe said. “Authorities may also consider the ship’s location, direction of travel, flag, ownership, perceived political risk, cargo type, security conditions and whether a ship has already submitted the required transit information.”
“The biggest uncertainty is whether this will be managed transparently or through ad hoc operational decisions,” he added.
Traders and manufacturers in the region are already reporting rising raw material prices and delivery delays, underscoring how quickly disruptions in Hormuz are rippling through regional economies.
Insurers and security checks are importantBefore traffic can return to normal, naval forces must certify the security of transit corridors, which is expected to take at least several days. War risk insurers must then reinstate coverage, without which ships will not move. Authorities in Oman, the United Arab Emirates and Iran will also need to coordinate shipping lanes, convoy systems or transit windows, while ships and crews positioned for diversion or delay must be reactivated, refueled and scheduled.
“Underwriters will want evidence of a stable and predictable operating environment: safe and consistent transits, no interference, clarity on mine risk and no further escalation,” Sharpe said. Prices, he added, are likely to remain highly sensitive to the ship’s flag, ownership, ties to Israel or the United States, its trading history and its cargo.
“Insurers will want evidence of a stable and predictable operating environment: safe and consistent transits, no interference, clarity on mine risk and no further escalation. Current pricing is likely to remain highly sensitive to flag, ownership, Israeli or US linkage, trading history and freight. Sustained reduction in incremental premiums will depend on sustained historical transit volumes and confidence that reopening is not reversible.”
“A sustainable reduction in additional premiums will depend on sustained historical transit volumes and confidence in the irreversibility of reopening,” he said.
There is also a security element, with Iran and the United States needing to coordinate on mine clearance, another process that could slow things down.
“Until there is absolute certainty that there are no mines, the process will be slow and take a few weeks since only a small passage will then be safely available,” Nikos Petrakakos, chief executive of maritime investment manager Tufton, told CNBC by email. “Once the situation regarding the mines is clear, it could take less than a week. But I think many will be cautious at first.”
Sharpe cited the Red Sea as a cautious comparison, saying many operators remained reluctant to return even after de-escalation signals that the Houthis had stopped firing on ships, without lasting evidence of safety.
When could shipments through Hormuz return to normal?Kpler said most Middle East production returns within weeks rather than months, but when that production can actually be exported is another question.
Much will depend on how quickly authorities, insurers and shipping companies can coordinate the reopening and restart the movement of goods. The first 10 to 15 days of clearing the tanker backlog could create a visible increase in traffic, but the return to normal flow could take longer if insurance premiums remain high, if naval controls are slow or if operators remain cautious.
What reopening means for oil pricesGoldman Sachs reduced its oil price forecast following Trump’s deal announcement, lowering its Brent forecast to $80 a barrel for the fourth quarter of 2026, from $90 previously, and to $75 for the 2027 average. But in the short term, prices could remain under pressure.
In a note published June 16, Goldman said “the supply recovery could be stronger” and estimated that Gulf flows had already increased to 11 million barrels per day, with increased flows and shifts from Hormuz.
