If “Disclosure Day” Comes, How Can We Trust UFO Evidence?

Steven Spielberg’s new sci-fi blockbuster Disclosure Day, hitting theaters June 12, explores what could happen when the world gets undeniable proof that we’re not alone in the universe. Although the film is purely Hollywood, the possibility that we might one day see real evidence of UFOs moves from science fiction to scientific plausibility.

For the the last two monthsthe federal government has declassified and published reports of UAPs, or unidentified anomalous phenomena, on a website maintained by the Department of Defense.

Although the government’s revelations provided no real evidence of extraterrestrial life or extraterrestrial spacecraft, they mark a shift from its previous stance of secrecy on the subject. The Pentagon’s revelations about strange real-world sightings draw obvious parallels to the film’s plot.

Without spoiling too much, Disclosure Day begins in the middle of the action: a whistleblower played by Josh O’Connor has already stolen evidence of a cover-up of extraterrestrial contact, while a Kansas City TV anchor played by Emily Blunt suddenly gains strange new abilities. The two men spend much of the two-and-a-half-hour film on the run from a shadowy government organization that wants to keep the truth hidden.

Spielberg was inspired to create Disclosure Day following a groundbreaking 2017 New York Times article, which published military videos of UAP sightings and reported a secret UAP program at the Pentagon. Some government officials and experts say the New York Times report has helped reduce the stigma associated with sharing reports of UFO incidents, particularly among the military.

In subsequent congressional hearings, former Navy pilots gave eyewitness accounts of UAPs in the sky, and a former intelligence officer testified about the existence of a secret UAP crash recovery program, under which non-human “biologicals” were recovered from crash sites.

I’ve looked through many of the UAP files published so far and haven’t found any evidence of extraterrestrial life, but they’re still interesting to read. Some documents date back to the time of the Roswell crash in the 1940s, one of the most famous alleged cases of flying saucer recovery. Foreigners or not, official military correspondence from 1948 that mentions “flying discs” remains a fascinating historical document.

Media interest, along with the government’s acknowledgment that it has long investigated UFOs, has helped move the topic beyond conspiracy books and online forums. In recent years, NASA commissioned an independent study team to review UAPs, which produced a report (PDF) noting that the agency “should contribute to a comprehensive, whole-of-government approach to future data collection.” Even the late Pope Francis discussed the idea that the discovery of extraterrestrials and religious faith need not contradict each other.

Although the videos, documents, and testimonies about UAP sightings are fascinating to watch and read, empirical data is still lacking to conclusively prove that extraterrestrial life has visited Earth. Yet these observations continue to be the subject of debate, with some scientists citing other possible explanations, such as drones, satellites or weather phenomena, or even optical and infrared distortions. Many cases seem to indicate more mundane terrestrial origins.

As Carl Sagan wrote in The Demon-Haunted World, his 1995 book on critical thinking and the scientific method: “It all depends on the question of evidence. The more we want this to be true, the more careful we must be. The opinion of no witness is sufficient. »

Have you ever seen a UFO?

Disclosure Day imagines what would happen if we knew for sure that aliens were here. In the real world, the SETI Institute has been studying stars for signs of life since 1984. Sagan briefly served on the board before dying in 1996. He even wrote the novel that inspired the 1997 science fiction film Contact starring Jodie Foster, which popularized SETI. The institute has long taken the question of extraterrestrial life seriously, but has yet to find any evidence of it.

On June 5, the International Academy of Astronautics ratified an updated set of post-detection protocols, developed with input from SETI members, to address modern challenges in evaluating and verifying evidence of extraterrestrial intelligence. The new protocols will help govern how scientists announce evidence of extraterrestrial intelligence in today’s global media environment, which is much more complex than it was when the original protocols were last revised 15 years ago.

Astrophysicist Michael Garrett, chair of the IAA SETI post-detection committee, told CNET that misinformation is one of the main reasons the protocols were updated. Artificial intelligence, deepfakes, and social media engagement algorithms have made it harder than ever to distinguish between real and fake on the internet.

“Today, rumors, conspiracy theories, fabricated documents, and AI-generated images, audio, and video can spread extremely quickly,” says Garrett. “Independent verification by the global scientific community remains the most effective way to establish credibility and maintain public trust.”

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Garrett also said two common misconceptions he hears are that the protocols assume that extraterrestrial civilizations would be hostile or that researchers would try to keep a discovery secret.

“Neither one is true,” Garrett said. “The protocols make no assumptions about the intentions of extraterrestrial intelligence. Nor do they create any secrecy mechanism.”

Instead, Garrett says the protocols emphasize openness and public accountability.

“The updated protocols encourage researchers to make observational data, analysis methods and software tools public when possible once a candidate signal has been verified,” Garrett said. So if scientists ever discover extraterrestrial life in the real world, we may not need a government whistleblower to get the word out.

Maybe the truth isn’t there

It is entirely possible, even likely, that we will never know what actually exists. That hasn’t stopped decades of rampant speculation and deep fascination with the subject. Sagan argued that many people believe in extraterrestrials because humans have always looked for ways to fill in the gaps in mysteries and unexplained phenomena.

In 2021, Pew Research reported that 65% of Americans believe intelligent life exists on other planets. In 2023, an Ipsos poll revealed that 42% of Americans believe in UFOs, and 10% say they have actually seen one. Now that the government is releasing decades of UAP reports and observations, it seems more likely than before that we will get proof that we are not alone. Or maybe not.

Sagan has long warned of the dangers of ignoring scientific rigor and the seduction of pseudoscience. Even when mundane reasoning can explain the fantastical, we are often inclined to abandon our skepticism and ignore the boring explanation.

“We have not yet found compelling evidence for life beyond Earth,” Sagan wrote in The Demon-Haunted World more than three decades ago. “However, we are only at the very beginning of the research. New and better information could emerge, for all we know, tomorrow.”