World Cup goals are on the rise. Is the bullet to blame?

The high rate of goals scored and the expansion of the tournament generate many goals. The 2026 World Cup features 48 teams playing 104 matches, compared to the most recent tournament in 2022, which had 32 teams across 64 matches. More matches mean more opportunities for teams to score, hence the all-time record for total goals scored.

The addition of teams to the tournament means there are more opportunities for countries with little or no experience on the World Cup stage. Some countries have a long history of World Cup appearances – hosts Mexico and the United States participated in the first matches in 1930, as did 2022 finalists France and Argentina – while four teams are making their World Cup debut this year: Curacao, Cape Verde, Jordan and Uzbekistan.

For decades, critics have argued that the tournament’s expansion “diluted the quality of the Cup,” said Mauricio Borrero, a historian at St. John’s University.

“They said the same thing when they went from 24 to 32 [teams]”, Borrero said, “and I still remember the time when the Cup was played 16 teams against 24 and people complained that it was going to dilute it.

But more teams don’t necessarily mean less talent. In recent decades, football has become even more globalized, with players playing in foreign club leagues during the regular season. That means athletes from Major League Soccer, Spain’s La Liga and the English Premier League also fill out rosters from smaller, lesser-known countries, Borrero said.

Haiti, for example, has three MLS And two Premier League athletes on his list.

Curacao’s hesitant entry into the World Cup in its opening match against Germany is an example of how goals can come at the expense of a new team, Borrero said. While Germany dominated Curacao 7–1, Curacao performed better in its second and third matches, and Germany lost goals to lower-ranked Ecuador and Ivory Coast before being eliminated by Paraguay.

Blame the ball

Some viewers have pointed to the ball as a possible factor impacting this tournament’s scoring rates. Former England goalkeeper Joe Hart told the BBC he saw goalkeepers struggled to control the ball during this tournament. Experts say it’s not that simple.

Since 1970, Adidas has partnered with the host country make a new ball for each tournament, reflecting the latest technological and cultural themes of the region.

This year’s ball, the Trionda, differs from its predecessors in the number of panels (four) that hold it together as well as its integrated electronic chip that allows it to transmit data.

But researchers say this ball doesn’t move much differently than balls from previous World Cups or other balls used in professional leagues.

John Eric Goff, a professor at Purdue University’s Sports Engineering Center, has been testing World Cup balls since 2010, when South Africa’s Jabulani World Cup ball became known for his unexpected moves. According to Goff, the Trionda is balanced and has similar aerodynamics to the ball used in the English Premier League.

These balls are also more consistent than those of decades past, which were hand-sewn or used a variety of natural materials, said Andy Harland, a professor of sports technology at Loughborough University in the United Kingdom and a consultant to brands and leagues making professional soccer balls.

The player’s perception of the ball can certainly influence a play, Harland said, because athletes rely on information such as the color and sound of the ball to interpret spin and speed. But players adapt quickly and have experience using a different ball in each league and tournament.

“It’s an easy target to blame the ball,” Goff said. “But I don’t hear a lot of players specifically singling out the ball like they did” in 2010.

Instead, experts point to evolving sports technology, allowing teams to play smarter on the field, as well as increased investment in more rigorous sports conditioning and better training facilities.

“The ball is a very high profile part of the game and certainly tournaments; people haven’t necessarily taken into account the quality of the pitch which has also changed and the quality of the pitch. [cleats]” Harland said.

Continental differences

All World Cup matches are played on grass which is deployed on concrete stadium floors, as opposed to the typical turf of an American football stadium. The quality of soccer fields has improved significantly, Harland said, with players less likely to find themselves in muddy conditions as was the case in the 1970s. This creates more even play and more controlled conditions.

However, many North American host cities experience hot temperatures, which can dry out the grounds. Other cities face high humidity, which can make it harder for players to get active at a moment’s notice. Goff brought up the U.S.-Turkey game in Los Angeles, during which viewers saw several players slip and fall.

Altitude can also impact ball movement; Cities at higher altitudes have lower air density, which can make the ball appear to be moving faster, Goff said. But there was no demonstrated impact on goals scored in higher elevation cities, like Mexico City, compared to other cities located at sea level, like Seattle or Miami.

As matches move into the round of 16, viewers can expect to see the same number of high-scoring matches. While the majority of goals were scored in the group stage in the previous nine tournaments, goal rates were also above average in later matches.