The Bureau of Labor Statistics’ June jobs report, to be released Thursday at 8:30 a.m. ET, is expected to show that the recent trend of steady hiring continued for a fourth straight month, but that wage growth remains below inflation.
The report is expected to show a gain of 115,000 jobs, the unemployment rate largely unchanged at 4.3% and average hourly wage growth of 3.5%, according to a survey of analysts and economists by Dow Jones.
The report is being released on Thursday instead of its traditional Friday release because U.S. bond and stock markets will be closed on July 3 in observance of Independence Day.
The big picture of employment
The US labor market has spent the last three months trying to get back on solid footing after several months of net job losses towards the end of 2025.
And it seems to be working: In each of the past three months, the U.S. economy has posted solid job gains of more than 170,000, following several months of employment contraction.
Although Thursday’s overall figure exceeds 115,000 job gains, it could be the smallest number of additions since February.
Many economists also see new risks looming in the labor market.
“After three months of strong payroll employment growth and a steady 4.3% unemployment rate, markets have become accustomed to the narrative that the labor market has stabilized,” Citigroup economist Veronica Clark wrote in a client note last week.
“But a number of other weaker data … lead us to believe that the strength of the payroll data is not a sign of lastingly stronger demand for workers,” she wrote.
On the low side, Citigroup expects “a modest increase of 25,000 wages in June, with the unemployment rate remaining at 4.3%.”
The World Cup factor
At UBS, economists warned readers not to be seduced by hiring ideas linked to the North American World Cup.
“We expect the World Cup to add 15,000 to 20,000 jobs to private employment developments in June,” the UBS team wrote in a client note last week.
They said jobs would likely be “split between temporary help, spectator sports and venues, and a few other locations, but with very few jobs in accommodation and food services.”
Not only will the World Cup not boost employment in hotels and restaurants, they predict, but these temporary jobs in June and July are subsequently expected to slightly diminish employment gains in July and August, they write.
The World Cup, which runs July 11-19, will take place in 11 U.S. stadiums in major U.S. cities, including New York, Miami, San Francisco, Dallas and Atlanta.
But not everyone is so pessimistic. Bank of America economist Shruti Mishra wrote this week that she expects June payrolls to increase by 110,000 positions.
“That said, we see downside risks: May’s leisure and hospitality boom may have been driven by the timing of the World Cup or Memorial Day. And if it was the latter,” she wrote, then June payrolls could take a hit.
A summer slowdown
Mishra also warned that local government hiring gains could “experience a significant reversal” to correct what she called an “outsized gain” in May.
One of the most optimistic employment forecasts comes from JPMorgan Chase, where economists expect 125,000 jobs, well above the consensus.
“Payroll growth has accelerated this year, with a three-month average now at 188,000 and a six-month average at 92,000, compared to just 10,000 per month for all of 2025,” JPMorgan economist Abiel Reinhart wrote Wednesday. That said, “we suspect that the three-month average probably overestimates the trend a bit.”
“One factor that calls for some caution is the idea that there could be a summer slowdown, with the three-month average of private sector employment having reached its lowest level in August in each of the last two years.”
Jennifer Timmerman, senior investment strategy analyst at Wells Fargo, said: “Overall, we view the broad patchwork of employment data as consistent with a stabilization of the labor market following the weakness of late 2025, rather than renewed strength. »
She also sees warning signs. “We expect moderate job growth in the coming months as the U.S. economy will likely experience some loss of momentum due to a delayed response to rising fuel costs and the end of tax refunds that temporarily boosted consumer spending in the spring,” Timmerman wrote Wednesday.
The Wage Growth Dilemma
Currently at 3.4%, Americans’ average hourly wage “remains near post-Covid lows,” UBS noted, and on Thursday that figure is expected to rise only slightly to 3.5% from a year ago.
Inflation is a sore point for many Americans, and according to polls and consumer surveys, American adults are becoming more dissatisfied with the economy over time. Wholesale inflation is also hitting businesses hard.
TThe producer price index recorded its highest monthly gain in May since the end of 2022. Many experts see this trend as a harbinger of what lies ahead for consumers.
Another monthly inflation indicator known to be the Federal Reserve’s favorite indicator, recently reached its highest level since April 2023.
Also in May, inflation – now at 4.2% – outpaced wage growth for the second month in a row. The pace of growth has slowed since late last year, when average hourly wages were rising steadily at nearly 4%.
Inflation has increased mainly because of sky-high energy prices. Even though prices have fallen significantly from their worst levels this year, the average retail gasoline price per gallon is still 30 percent higher than before the war.
“Wage growth is not reversing quickly,” the Center for Economic and Policy Research noted Tuesday, but said strong hiring could push it higher.
On Wednesday, ADP reported that the private sector created fewer jobs in June than many experts expected. Although ADP’s report rarely matches official U.S. government employment figures, some economists saw Wednesday’s data as another warning sign.
“The pace of hiring reflects both supply and demand,” said Nela Richardson, ADP chief economist. “We know it’s taking longer for people to find work, but there are also signs of labor supply constraints in some sectors.”
“For now, the overall effect is a slowdown in job creation,” she added.
