The security situation in the Strait of Hormuz has returned to the “worst case scenario” for oil tankers, with Iran repeatedly attacking vessels over the past week, the CEO of a maritime risk management services company said.
“We are seeing a reduction in the volume of transits through the Strait of Hormuz and, at present, ship crews are even more worried than before,” Dimitris Maniatis, CEO of Athens-headquartered Marisks, said at a conference. Lloyd’s List Intelligence briefing this week.
“Nobody wants to move,” Maniatis said.
At least nine ships have been attacked since July 6 as Iran attempts to force ships to sail to Hormuz through its territorial waters rather than a route along the coast of Oman protected by the US military, according to data from the International Maritime Organizationa United Nations agency.
A sailor was killed and three others injured on Tuesday in the attack on the oil tanker Al Bahyah off the coast of Oman, according to the IMO. Eleven sailors were injured the same day in an attack on the Mombasa B, also an oil tanker sailing near Oman.
The Iranian attacks used anti-ship missiles, said Jakob Larsen, head of security at BIMCO, one of the world’s largest shipping associations.
“All of this is resonating with the crews and right now they’re just not very happy to have this experience, no matter what they’re promised,” Maniatis said. “It’s not about money anymore. It’s not about another higher calling. It’s simply about the fear that governs decision-making right now.”
The US military neutralized an empty tanker on Wednesday after reestablishing its naval blockade against Iran this week, according to US Central Command. The Curacao-flagged M/T Belma ignored several warnings while transiting international waters en route to the Iranian island of Kharg, Centcom said.
The traditional route through central Hormuz, known as the Traffic Separation System, remains too dangerous for ships due to the threat of mines, Larsen said.
“If a mine explodes, it usually happens under the ship,” he explained. “The mine is a very powerful weapon, so it is extremely dangerous for ships to run into a minefield.”
Hormuz, traffic in tricklesPresident Donald Trump said Tuesday that Hormuz is open to all ships except those from Iran after the reimposition of the U.S. naval blockade.
“It’s open if people want to experience it,” Trump told Fox News in an interview. “We’re not opening it to Iran. That’s the only one it’s closed to. It’s closed to Iran, inside and out, but it’s open now.”
But ship tracking companies have observed a sharp drop in traffic. Hormuz was again largely closed with just a small number of ships crossing with their transponders turned off, according to Lloyd’s analyst team. monitor the strait.
Traffic fell to three-week low, data from business information company Kpler. Ship transits fell to eight on Thursday, compared to 15 ships the day before, Kpler said. More than 100 ships transited Hormuz daily before the United States and Israel attacked Iran on February 28.
The United States launched six rounds of airstrikes against Iran in retaliation for tanker attacks. Tehran responded with volleys of missiles targeting US allies in the Gulf. Iran and its Houthi allies in Yemen are now threatening to suspend maritime traffic in Yemen. Red Seawhich became a vital alternative route for Saudi oil exports during the war.
“Unfortunately, it appears we are on a path to escalation and the situation may well get worse over time,” Larsen told CNBC.
Sailors need reassuranceThe escalating fighting comes as the United States and Iran argue over how Hormuz is supposed to reopen under government rule. memorandum of understanding they signed on June 17. Tehran promised safe passage for ships through the strait, but the deal did not define which routes the ships should take.
Shipping companies need reliable assurances from Iran and the United States about the security of Hormuz, Larsen said. Absent a deal, the alternative is for the United States to continue carrying out strikes against Iranian missile batteries, drone operators and gunboats, he said. Traffic could increase again if shippers believe the United States has successfully mitigated the threat from Tehran, the analyst said.
Shipping companies have different risk appetites, with some willing to transit Hormuz while others stay away from the strait altogether, Larsen said.
But the decision to transit Hormuz does not only belong to “the shipowner sitting behind his desk,” the analyst said.
“It also requires the crew to actually be on board,” he said.
