F/m Investments’ Washington, DC office is a short drive from Federal Reservethe headquarters of. But under the central bank’s new leadership, the CEO Alexander Morris found the distance much greater.
Chairman of the Fed Kevin Warsh has embarked on an overhaul of the central bank’s forward-looking communication since taking office in May. The move raised alarm bells for market participants like Morris, whose investment theses rely in part on predicting what the Fed will do with interest rates.
“We’ve done very good business decoding Fedspeak,” Morris said, referring to the communications jargon favored by central bank leaders. “And he just said he was going to shut up about us.”
This week, Morris’ company, which manages exchange-traded funds linked to inflation And American treasuresreleased “WarshGPT.” It’s a artificial intelligence-tool that analyzes nearly 1,800 Warsh documents and transcripts, with the aim of helping users understand how it can analyze questions related to economics or monetary policy.
F/m Investments is one of several financial institutions preparing for an era of lower Warsh Fed public forecasts. In some cases, they are turning to AI models to gain an investment advantage.
“Whether the Fed provides a lot or a little information, investors need to understand what the Fed is likely to do in the future,” said Gary Richardson, a former central bank historian and now an economics professor at the University of California, Irvine. “With limited information, people are going to try to do everything they can to understand what the Fed is thinking.”
U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh speaks during his first press conference since taking over as head of the central bank June 17, 2026 in Washington, DC.
Chen Mengtong | Chinese Press Service | Getty Images
Greetings and Briefcase SizesInvestors and Fed watchers wonder if the former chairman Alan GreenspanThe communication style can serve as a reference for what to expect in Warsh.
At that time, Richardson said people joked that just telling Greenspan “good evening” could cause the market to decline. The financial media followed the so-called briefcase indicatorwhich theorized that Greenspan carrying a larger bag meant he had accumulated evidence as to why borrowing costs should be changed.
Alan Greenspan
Anjali Sundaram | CNBC
Warsh has already made clear his expectations for a change in how the Fed publishes information. One of his working groups aimed at reshaping the Fed’s operations focuses on how the central bank communicates.
that of June Federal Reserve Meeting Statement — the first such post under Warsh — contained around 130 words, down from the 300-plus word numbers seen in previous posts, according to a CNBC analysis. Warsh, who acknowledged the statement was “shorter” and “simpler,” said it deliberately excluded forward-looking guidance.
In his first post-ruling press conference as president, Warsh allocated 5% of sentences to political matters, according to UBS. This figure rises to 27% for an average meeting under the predecessor Jerome Powellsaid the bank.
“A word can move dollars”F/m Investments’ WarshGPT chatbot costs less than $1,000 to build AnthropicIt is Claude model, although the name is a riff on its rival OpenAIIt is ChatGPT. It took about two weeks to create a start-to-release timeline that included pre-deployment testing by a group of Fed alumni and newsletter writers.
In addition to Warsh’s communications, the product also draws on economic and political history to ensure its responses are contextual. But F/m sets limits to what WarshGPT can do: the bot doesn’t talk like Warsh and won’t offer forward-looking statements or forecasts.
F/m is not the only major company reconsidering its strategies and tools to understand a Warsh-led central bank.
UBS maintains an interactive dashboard allowing its clients to follow the Fed’s political tone. This allows users to have an unbiased assessment of Warsh’s comments during meetings, according to Elena Amoruso, a strategist at the Swiss bank.
Following Warsh first political meeting as chief last month, Amoruso told clients that Warsh’s comments regarding the policy were “extremely hawkish.” The central bank chief’s stance was driven by his views on the labor market and growth, she said, as well as the state of inflation.
“This is arguably the most valuable data set… in terms of how much one word can move dollars,” Amoruso told CNBC.
At JPMorgan Asset Management, chief global strategist David Kelly has backup plans if the Fed stops issuing key statements. If the central bank removes the “dot plot” for example, Kelly said his team would think more closely about speeches from members of the Federal Free Market Committee – the group responsible for setting interest rates – to get an idea of how they would vote next.
To be sure, Kelly said major changes in Fed communication would likely take several months to announce and implement. He said the final decisions might not be as drastic as some imagine.
“Just as the Federal Reserve says it can be patient in adjusting interest rates to the economy, we can be patient in adjusting our resources,” Kelly said.
“Less clarity”Still, investors expect that less forward-looking guidance from the Fed could lead to larger market swings after policy decisions or public appearances by members. Some traders see a chance to reap greater returns in this environment.
“If there’s less communication about the reaction function, I actually think it’s negative for the economy,” said Steve Friedman, a New York Fed veteran who is now a senior macroeconomist at MacKay Shields. However, “less clarity on what the Fed might do can actually be a source of alpha for investors if you have a solid framework for thinking about the economy and monetary policy.”
If Warsh cancels his public speaking engagements, Friedman said he will monitor the Fed governor’s speeches more closely. Christopher Waller. Friedman described Waller as a “gagman” for the committee at large.
Waller said this week that the Fed should not focus on “waging the last war” against inflation, but interest rate increases could still be considered.
Christopher Waller, Governor of the US Federal Reserve, at the Federal Reserve Payments Innovation Conference in Washington, DC, USA, Tuesday, October 21, 2025.
Aaron Schwartz | Bloomberg | Getty Images
Retail traders may need to further diversify their portfolios to account for increased political uncertainty under Warsh, according to UC-Irvine’s Richardson. Investment firms looking to get ahead, meanwhile, will spend a lot of money hiring Fed veterans who can help them make forecasts in an environment of less transparency, Richardson said.
There are already divergent expectations for how the Fed will conduct policy in the coming months.
Fed funds futures traders put the chance that the central bank will raise interest rates in September at almost 59%, according to the CME. FedWatch tool. On the other hand, Kalshi Traders I think it is very likely that the Fed will keep rates unchanged at this meeting.
“For ordinary investors, it’s already very difficult to understand what’s going on,” Richardson said. “It’s going to get a lot harder.”
