An oilfield crew, contracted by the Railroad Commission of Texas (RRC), works on a service platform during a state-funded oil well plugging operation in Midland, Texas, U.S., Thursday, September 25, 2025.
Eli Hartman | Bloomberg | Getty Images
Oil prices fell about 4% Friday morning, but remained on track for a 10% weekly jump as the war between the United States and Iran continues to escalate.
At 5:20 a.m. ET, world benchmark Brent crude futures for July deliveries were down 4% at $96.72 a barrel and heading for a weekly gain of 9.7%.
WE West Texas Intermediate Crude Futures were also down 3.4%, trading at $89.06 per barrel but up 8% for the week.
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Overnight, U.S. Central Command carried out its 13th consecutive night of strikes against Iran, targeting military command centers, drone storage facilities, communications networks, coastal surveillance sites and maritime capabilities.
Centcom said the strikes were aimed at “further decreasing the threat Iran poses to civilian mariners and commercial vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz.”
“The international waterway remains open for transit despite recent attacks by Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. Commercial vessels continue to navigate freely through the strait with U.S. military support,” the military unit said in a statement.
“More than 50,000 U.S. military personnel are currently operating across the Middle East.”
American President Donald Trump said Axios On Thursday, he considered a “massive attack” on Iran after the Middle East conflict spread to a new battlefield in the Red Sea. The president said the proposed strikes would be larger than anything seen in the war so far, and that Iran has not yet “received enough pain.”
“I’m considering a massive attack. Bigger than ever. I’m about to make a decision. We’re all ready for it,” he said in the interview.
This came after Trump said he would hold Iran responsible for further attacks by Tehran-backed Houthis in Yemen, after the militant group claimed colliding with two Saudi oil tankers in the Red Sea.
“If they do this again, the United States will hold Iran responsible, as the Houthis are proxies and/or proxies for Iran, and major military sanctions will be imposed on Iran and, of course, the Houthis themselves,” he said in a Truth Social article. job.
Iran’s Revolutionary Guards said Thursday they had attacked U.S. military installations at a U.S. base in Jordan, according to state media.
Speaking to reporters on Thursday, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio called Trump’s approach to the Iran war a “head for an eye.”
In a note Friday morning, Daniela Hathorn, senior market analyst at capital.com, said growing instability around key shipping routes had recreated a “significant geopolitical risk premium” in oil markets.
“Investor confidence has been dampened by continued disruptions in the Red Sea, where attacks on commercial shipping have exacerbated concerns over global trade and energy security,” she said. “Combined with tensions around the Strait of Hormuz, these events have reinforced the view that geopolitical risks are unlikely to fade anytime soon, keeping energy markets tight and inflation risks elevated.”
Meanwhile, Giovanni Staunovo, a strategist at UBS Global Wealth Management, said in a note on Thursday that markets could overestimate the oil market’s recovery from the conflict.
“We continue to expect the process of resuming production in the Middle East to be slower than the market expects, as it requires an increase in the number of incoming vessels,” he said. “With the resumption of conflict, these flows remain depressed. This should keep the oil market tight and prices supported.”
UBS predicts Brent crude will fall to $85 a barrel by the end of the year.
