A $1,000 investment in Apple right after Thanksgiving could be worth that much by the end of the year

Apple, Inc.'s AAPL stock is down about 16.1% year-to-date. The decline is nearly in line with the performance of the broader market, with the S&P 500 index falling about 15.5% over the period. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite Index plunged 28.2% during the period.

How Apple generally does during the holiday quarter: The December quarter is Apple's most seasonal period, as it encompasses the holiday sales period. In fiscal 2021, the company earned about 30% of its revenue in the quarter. If only hardware sales are considered, their share of total revenue jumps to over 32%.

The December quarter, which is the first quarter of Apple's fiscal year, is growing in importance as the company usually launches the newest iteration of its flagship product - the iPhone, in September or October. Shipments generally begin in the December quarter. This time around, iPhone 14 shipments began in mid-September, driving part of the sales in the September quarter.

Other factors to consider are promotions and discounts available for the holiday shopping season, which make Apple's more expensive iPhones more affordable for users, increasing probably the volumes.

Does the action seep into the action? Analyzing the past 10 years to determine whether stronger sales translate to higher returns for Apple investors shows that the stock hasn't budged much in most years. That said, the past three years have seen the stock recover strongly through year-end.

Here are the returns for Apple stocks from the day after Thanksgiving to the end of the year:

Returns of position entered now: A $1,000 investment in Apple at Friday's closing price of $148.11 would return 6.8 shares. Assuming the stock returns 0.55%, consistent with the 10-year average, it would trade at around $149 by year-end. This would mean that the 6.8 shares one currently owns are worth $1,013.20.

Headwinds abound: 2022 has been a tough year for Apple. Mid-quarter, the company stepped in and said it expected lower iPhone 14 Pro and iPhone 14 Pro Max shipments due to production disruptions at the main iPhone factory HNHPF. from its supplier Hon Hai Precision Manufacturing Company Limited located in Zhengzhou, China due to the renewal of COVID-19. epidemics.

Wedbush analyst Daniel Ives said in a recent note that high-end iPhone models are in short supply, with shipping times stretching. He expects Black Friday weekend iPhone sales to hit eight million units, up from 12 million previously.

Furthermore, the uncertain macroeconomic situation has pushed consumers on the defensive, prompting them to tighten their purse strings.

By the end of the year, Apple shares will likely trade in reaction to external factors, including economic data and the Fed's decision in December, as well as how the COVID-19 situation in China (its main production hub) is unfolding.

Read Next: How to Buy Apple Stock (AAPL)

Photo: courtesy of unsplash.com

© 2022 Benzinga.com. Benzinga does not provide investment advice. All rights reserved.