Analysts Say Bitcoin Range 'Consolidation' Highly Likely Until a 'Macro Catalyst' Emerges

BTC On-Chain metrics and technical indicators are trading near all-time lows, but analysts say a new 'macro catalyst' could prove that the current range is not the bottom.

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From a historical perspective, the loss in value realized in the cryptocurrency market over the past few months has been record high and the total cryptocurrency market capitalization has fallen from $3 trillion to $991 millions of dollars.

June was particularly painful for investors after the price of Bitcoin (BTC) fell nearly 40% to mark one of its worst calendar months on record, according to a recent report by the research firm. Delphi Digital cryptocurrencies.

Monthly candles BTC/USD vs MoM% currency . Source: Delphi Digital

In light of the sharp market correction, a number of BTC prices and on-chain metrics have started to reach levels similar to those seen during previous lows market, but that doesn't mean traders should expect a turnaround anytime soon, as history shows that periods of weakness can drag on for months.

Macro headwinds weigh on BTC price

One of the biggest factors weighing on cryptocurrencies and other risky assets has been the strength of the US dollar.

DXY index % change by against BTC/ USD price changes in % YoY. Source: Delphi Digital

Combined with rising inflation and falling economic indicators, the strength of the DXY is a signal that an economic slowdown is all but inevitable, with forecasts predicting now an early to mid-2023 recession.

Against this backdrop, BTC is now attempting to form a local bottom around the 2017 cycle high near $20,000, “the last clear structural support on the high-maturity bitcoin chart.”