Can tactical voting really have a significant impact in the next elections?

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A drop in support combined with tactical voting could, according to new research, leave the Conservatives with just 124 seats in the next election – their worst result on record, by far.
124 seats? Surely not?
This figure would be far worse than the 165 seats obtained in the 1997 elections, and even lower than the party's worst ever electoral result of 156 seats in 1906.
But such a result is possible. A poll by Electoral Calculus shows that, based on current voting intentions, in which the Conservatives are behind by 18 points, the party is on course to win just 159 seats, losing more than half of the 365 it had won in 2019. The Find Out Now group suggests tactical voting could cost the Conservatives an extra 35 seats.
How can you predict the scale of tactical voting?
This is not easy, but there is clear evidence. Recent by-elections showed voters were prepared to vote in large numbers tactically, with Labor and the Liberal Democrats overturning huge Conservative majorities in Selby and Ainsty, as well as Chesham and Amersham.

It is certainly true that tactical voting The immense scale required for the Liberal Democrats to win Chesham and Amersham, where they turned a 16,000 vote defeat into an 8,000 vote victory in less than two years, is generally the preserve of by-elections.
In recent years, a large number of by-elections have been called as a direct result of wrongdoing by an incumbent Conservative MP, and a by-election offers voters opportunity to express their discontent knowing that it is extremely unlikely to have a material effect on government policy and how it might affect their lives.
When In general elections, voters rarely vote out of protest and are much more likely to use their vote in accordance with how they expect the election to impact their lives, whether it is costs schooling, net zero or how to pay for social services.
But when there is a widespread desire for change, history shows that British voters are ready to vote. tactically. Blair's overwhelming majority in 1997 also allowed Paddy Ashdown's Liberal Democrats to more than double their seats, from 18 to 46.
What can Rishi Sunak do about it?

John Curtice thinks tactical voting will have little impact given the Tories face “electoral wipeout” anyway. Heading to 159 seats would be so bad that heading even lower to 124 would make little difference. Of course, Rishi Sunak is...

Politics Sep 12, 2023 0 24 Add to Reading List

Can tactical voting really have a significant impact in the next elections?

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A drop in support combined with tactical voting could, according to new research, leave the Conservatives with just 124 seats in the next election – their worst result on record, by far.

124 seats? Surely not?

This figure would be far worse than the 165 seats obtained in the 1997 elections, and even lower than the party's worst ever electoral result of 156 seats in 1906.

But such a result is possible. A poll by Electoral Calculus shows that, based on current voting intentions, in which the Conservatives are behind by 18 points, the party is on course to win just 159 seats, losing more than half of the 365 it had won in 2019. The Find Out Now group suggests tactical voting could cost the Conservatives an extra 35 seats.

How can you predict the scale of tactical voting?

This is not easy, but there is clear evidence. Recent by-elections showed voters were prepared to vote in large numbers tactically, with Labor and the Liberal Democrats overturning huge Conservative majorities in Selby and Ainsty, as well as Chesham and Amersham.

It is certainly true that tactical voting The immense scale required for the Liberal Democrats to win Chesham and Amersham, where they turned a 16,000 vote defeat into an 8,000 vote victory in less than two years, is generally the preserve of by-elections.

In recent years, a large number of by-elections have been called as a direct result of wrongdoing by an incumbent Conservative MP, and a by-election offers voters opportunity to express their discontent knowing that it is extremely unlikely to have a material effect on government policy and how it might affect their lives.

When In general elections, voters rarely vote out of protest and are much more likely to use their vote in accordance with how they expect the election to impact their lives, whether it is costs schooling, net zero or how to pay for social services.

But when there is a widespread desire for change, history shows that British voters are ready to vote. tactically. Blair's overwhelming majority in 1997 also allowed Paddy Ashdown's Liberal Democrats to more than double their seats, from 18 to 46.

What can Rishi Sunak do about it?

John Curtice thinks tactical voting will have little impact given the Tories face “electoral wipeout” anyway. Heading to 159 seats would be so bad that heading even lower to 124 would make little difference. Of course, Rishi Sunak is...