"Don't Worry Darling": PR Fiasco Be Damned, Olivia Wilde's film could set box office precedents

Olivia Wilde's 1950s suburban drama "Don't Worry Darling" (WBD) grossed $3.1 between Monday IMAX screenings and Thursday shows starting at 4 p.m. These early results bolster expectations that the film will likely top $20 million for the weekend (including these totals). Warners gave $17 million as a pre-release projection.

WBD did not provide a breakdown between the two days, but similar cases have shown that broader Thursday shows typically make up two-thirds or more of gross. If so, that would suggest at least $2 million on Thursday. One-day previews for "The Woman King" (Sony) grossed $1.7 million, part of a $19 million weekend.

“Darling,” which stars Florence Pugh, Harry Styles and Chris Pine, cost less than $35 million, less than “Woman King.” It overlaps in female appeal, although Wilde's film is expected to be much younger. Harry Styles will appeal to an 18-24 year old crowd, but his R rating will limit his younger fans' ability to see him.

Not knowing the breakdown between Monday and Thursday numbers limits analysis, but reports of decent or better crowds suggest positive word of mouth. It will take at least until Saturday to gauge the reaction, although Cinemascore will release its result late Friday evening.

"Don't worry honey"

©Warner Bros/Courtesy Everett C

We're guessing "Darling" will hit or even exceed its projected weekend total of $20 million, which would make two consecutive weekends of No. 1-rated female-directed movies. Even better, both are original titles with midrange budgets ("Woman King" was $50 million).

With 4,113 theaters in the United States and Canada, "Darling" will have more releases than any other film directed by a woman. This number is impressive. At different times, among different companies with streaming outlets (including Warners), this might have been seen as a candidate for day and date or a streaming debut. This is no longer the case under the new management of WBD.

The theatrical success of "Darling" would be a grace note in what is a dark time for the show. Beyond that, it's key to other ideas with longer-term implications: ticket buyers react to non-franchise titles, and women's interest films are key to box office recovery. Beyond that: Even if reviews aren't great and an advertising strategy doesn't go as planned and goes completely off the rails, success is possible.

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