John Landgraf thinks 'Peak TV' could reverse by 30%

During the Television Critics Association Winter Press Tour, we featured our annual "Peak TV" lecture by Professor John Landgraf, best known as FX Networks President of Content and Productions. In 2022, television (and streaming) combined to create a whopping 599 original scripted series (in English, for adults): a new all-time high.

Landgraf thinks “Peak TV,” a term he coined years ago, has finally hit its peak. With cost cutting (and therefore content cutting) all the rage, there's no choice but to back down. That said, as he openly admitted several times during his Thursday morning executive session at the TCA, Landgraf got the "peak" wrong - a few times - before.

IndieWire caught up with Landgraf (and FX Presidents of Original Programming Nick Grad and Gina Balian) around lunchtime, when we asked John how far Consolidation TV is - a term we think we just made it up - could get off?

Although Landgraf warned that he would "throw darts" here, he made his way to the score line. As long as there are "five, six, seven or eight streaming services," Landgraf began, he thinks the inversion could be "on the order of 20-30 percent."

Grad told us that agents were "seeing more passes and a lack of orders." He added, "The cadence is just off right now."

Let's do some math. A 20% drop would bring the “too much TV” tally back to the 480 series range, last seen around 2017. A 30% reversal would bring the tally down to around 420 scripted programs, or roughly what the ecosystem had in 2015.

What Landgraf wouldn't venture to guess is how many years it would take us to go from 599 to 420. It's great to know when to stop predicting.

Jeremy Allen White as Carmen...