Look at this 'smile': it's number 1 again in an otherwise terrible October

October's box office didn't start much better than the sad month of September. Despite two new studio releases, this weekend's $61 million estimate is down from last weekend's $63 million.

Neither Sony's "Lyle, Lyle, Crocodile" animation nor David O. Russell's "Amsterdam" lived up to their modest hopes. And that allowed last weekend's surprise hit “Smile” (Paramount) to repeat itself as No. 1. With a stellar hold – down just 22%, good for any second weekend, from never before seen for a horror release - and grossing $17.6 million (the second straight week on its production cost), "Smile" saved us from total disaster. /p>

Sony has a good track record with animated films such as the "Hotel Transylvania" and "Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs" franchises. "Lyle," based on the 1960s children's book series, was a $50 million production positioned to benefit from the dearth of similar releases. It performed at the level suggested by the studio, but is below expectations for similar titles.

"Amsterdam"

Courtesy of 20th Century Studios

Of seven non-franchise studio releases in the past four weeks, "Amsterdam" is the most expensive at $80 million. It grossed $6.8 million, a low figure backed by a major presence in IMAX theaters, and did no better than the ill-fated "Bros" (Universal). It had a three-time Oscar-nominated director in Russell, and the cast included Oscar-winner Christian Bale, two-time Oscar-nominated Margot Robbie, and John David Robinson).

It also had the worst career reviews for Russell (Metacritic score: 47), an obscure plot, and a need to attract hard-to-reach older audiences. This is a Fox production, although at this point that studio is fully integrated with Disney. This production unit also provided the low-budget "Barbarian," which has grossed $36 million to date and still holds up.

A year ago, "Barbarian" and "Smile" might have seemed headed for streaming debuts with or without a same-day theatrical release. Their successes and the added value for later home access is a key sign of positive post-Covid outcomes.

What they aren't is enough to sustain a business that's still desperately in need of a rebound. This weekend was just 41% of the same date in 2019 (which is when “The Joker” opened) and 56% of 2021 (“No Time to Die”). The four-week run...