Mideast crisis: Next phase of Israel's war against Hamas could shift focus to Hezbollah

News analysis

Soldiers Israelis near the border with Gaza in southern Israel last week.Credit...Jack Guez/Agence France-Presse — Getty Images

Israeli Prime Minister Declares War in Gaza Strip Will Soon Enter New Phase.

“The intense phase of the war with Hamas is about to end,” the prime minister said. » Benjamin Netanyahu said in a television interview on Sunday. "This does not mean that the war is about to end, but the war in its intense phase is about to end."

But no matter Relieved that these comments might bring after more than six months of horrific bloodshed, Mr. Netanyahu quickly made two things clear: a ceasefire in Gaza is not up for grabs. within reach. And the next fight could take place in Lebanon, with the forces of Hamas ally Hezbollah.

After the troops withdraw in Gaza, he said. , "We will be able to move part of our forces towards the north."

Mr. Netanyahu refrained from announcing an invasion of Lebanon, a move that would likely result in heavy Israeli and Lebanese casualties, and instead left the door open for a diplomatic resolution with Hezbollah.

Any diplomatic resolution in Gaza remains uncertain, in part because Mr. Netanyahu's coalition would likely collapse if Israel stopped the fighting in Gaza without having eliminated Hamas. power.

The Prime Minister nevertheless seems to indicate that Israel, after having completed its current military operation in Rafah, the southernmost town of Gaza , will not seek to organize major ground invasions of towns in central Gaza, the only area of ​​the territory where the Israeli army has not carried out such attacks.

While Israeli leaders have declared since January that they are transitioning to a lower intensity war, the end of the Rafah operation could help complete this process.

Mr. Netanyahu's remarks and recent comments from Defense Minister Yoav Gallant, who was in Washington on Monday, indicated that the Israel's political discourse and strategic planning are shifting toward its northern border with Lebanon.

In a statement Monday, Ms. Gallant said he had discussed with US officials the transition to 'Phase C' in Gaza and its impact on the region, including with respect to Lebanon and other regions. a multi-phase battle plan that included intense airstrikes against Hamas targets and infrastructure; a period of ground operations aimed at “eliminating pockets of resistance”; and a third phase, or Phase C, which would create “a new security reality for the citizens of Israel.”

Funeral of a Hezbollah member killed in an Israeli attack in Lebanon in May.Credit...Diego Ibarra Sanchez for The New York Times

Since October, Israel has been waging a low-intensity conflict with Hezbollah that has resulted in the displacement of hundreds of thousands of civilians on both sides of the border. But the fighting has been overshadowed by the broader war in Gaza.

The change in rhetoric over the weekend could be a sign harbinger of a major escalation. between Hezbollah and Israel.

Israeli officials have warned for months that they could invade Lebanon if Hezbollah, a powerful militia backed by Iran, was committed. ..

Mideast crisis: Next phase of Israel's war against Hamas could shift focus to Hezbollah

News analysis

Soldiers Israelis near the border with Gaza in southern Israel last week.Credit...Jack Guez/Agence France-Presse — Getty Images

Israeli Prime Minister Declares War in Gaza Strip Will Soon Enter New Phase.

“The intense phase of the war with Hamas is about to end,” the prime minister said. » Benjamin Netanyahu said in a television interview on Sunday. "This does not mean that the war is about to end, but the war in its intense phase is about to end."

But no matter Relieved that these comments might bring after more than six months of horrific bloodshed, Mr. Netanyahu quickly made two things clear: a ceasefire in Gaza is not up for grabs. within reach. And the next fight could take place in Lebanon, with the forces of Hamas ally Hezbollah.

After the troops withdraw in Gaza, he said. , "We will be able to move part of our forces towards the north."

Mr. Netanyahu refrained from announcing an invasion of Lebanon, a move that would likely result in heavy Israeli and Lebanese casualties, and instead left the door open for a diplomatic resolution with Hezbollah.

Any diplomatic resolution in Gaza remains uncertain, in part because Mr. Netanyahu's coalition would likely collapse if Israel stopped the fighting in Gaza without having eliminated Hamas. power.

The Prime Minister nevertheless seems to indicate that Israel, after having completed its current military operation in Rafah, the southernmost town of Gaza , will not seek to organize major ground invasions of towns in central Gaza, the only area of ​​the territory where the Israeli army has not carried out such attacks.

While Israeli leaders have declared since January that they are transitioning to a lower intensity war, the end of the Rafah operation could help complete this process.

Mr. Netanyahu's remarks and recent comments from Defense Minister Yoav Gallant, who was in Washington on Monday, indicated that the Israel's political discourse and strategic planning are shifting toward its northern border with Lebanon.

In a statement Monday, Ms. Gallant said he had discussed with US officials the transition to 'Phase C' in Gaza and its impact on the region, including with respect to Lebanon and other regions. a multi-phase battle plan that included intense airstrikes against Hamas targets and infrastructure; a period of ground operations aimed at “eliminating pockets of resistance”; and a third phase, or Phase C, which would create “a new security reality for the citizens of Israel.”

Funeral of a Hezbollah member killed in an Israeli attack in Lebanon in May.Credit...Diego Ibarra Sanchez for The New York Times

Since October, Israel has been waging a low-intensity conflict with Hezbollah that has resulted in the displacement of hundreds of thousands of civilians on both sides of the border. But the fighting has been overshadowed by the broader war in Gaza.

The change in rhetoric over the weekend could be a sign harbinger of a major escalation. between Hezbollah and Israel.

Israeli officials have warned for months that they could invade Lebanon if Hezbollah, a powerful militia backed by Iran, was committed. ..

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