ANALYSIS: Tinubu campaign focuses on states with local APC strongmen

To win the presidential election, Bola Tinubu apparently believes he must retain the support his All Progressives Congress (APC) enjoyed in the heart of the North in the 2015 and 2019 elections and also improve the party's fortunes in power in the South, particularly the Southeast and the South-South - two regions that are beyond the control of the APC.

Unlike the last two election cycles, 2023 has been projected as a four-horse race with Peter Obi of the Labor Party, former Vice President Atiku Abubakar of the People's Democratic Party and Rabiu Kwankwaso of the Nigerian People's New Party ( NNPP) projected as serious challengers. Additionally, the region of origin of candidates may be reflected in the vote split.

Atiku and Mr. Kwakwaso come from the North East and North West respectively, while Mr. Tinubu and Mr. Obi come from the South West and South East respectively. If the candidates do well in their home regions, that leaves the north-central and south-south as potential battlegrounds. However, Atiku's running mate, Ifeanyi Okowa, is from South-South.

In 2015, the ruling APC did not win 20% of the vote in any of the 11 south-east and south-south states, except Edo, where Buhari won 40 % of total votes cast.

However, the party's fortunes improved in 2019 when President Buhari polled a total of 403,968 in the five southeastern states, more than double the 198,248 he had in 2015. In addition, the APC now has two governors in the region, David Umahi from Ebonyi and Hope Uzodinma from Imo State.

Unsurprisingly, Mr. Tinubu appears to have prioritized these two regional states in his campaign. He held rallies and engagements there, relying on governors to mobilize supporters for rallies and all.

The campaign council hasn't kept to its schedule of rallies. It seems the idea now is to focus on states where the flag bearer has strong allies.

In Abia State, Mr. Tinubu also has a strong political associate in the person of Senator Orji Kalu. In fact, the APC has one senator and two members of the House of Representatives in the state, but the APC is facing a crisis in the state due to a dispute over its gubernatorial ticket.

Uche Ogah and Ikechi Emenike won parallel primaries organized by different factions of the party and have since been in court. However, Mr. Emenike is the party's presidential campaign coordinator in the state.

With this fight, the party has been unable to capitalize on its strong presence in Abia North. In addition, there is Governor Okezie Ikpeazu's postman. The governor, who is a member of the PDP's rebel G5 governors, does not support the PDP presidential candidate, but has not yet said who else he would support for.

In Enugu state, the APC remains very weak and it is unclear how much Mr Tinubu's endorsement by a former state governor and PDP senator, Chimaroke Nnamani, will help . Meanwhile, Anambra State is Mr. Obi's home state.

Overall, the opening of the newly constructed Second Niger Bridge for temporary holiday use has provided Mr. Tinubu and the APC with a powerful campaign tool. He has endured having to defend the record of the current administration. Most of the time, he was forced to resort to "I am Bola Tinubu, he is Muhammadu Buhari" and campaign with his record in Lagos.

In the South-South, Mr Tinubu has focused on Delta, Bayelsa and Cross River where he has close allies. These include Governor Ben Ayade in Cross River, Minister of State for Petroleum and former Governor Timipriye Sylva and David Lyon in Bayelsa, and Ovie Omo-Agege, Deputy Speaker of the Senate and gubernatorial candidate of APC in Delta State.

At a public meeting in Cross River, Mr. Tinubu intervened