It was a big year for the space industry. 2023 will be even bigger.

Another successful year for the space industry is coming to an end. In fact, 2022 may have been the most significant year for space in recent memory - since 1969, at least. The historic rate of SpaceX, the launch of Space Launch System and the return of the Orion capsule, the great technical demonstrations, the lunar mission entirely deprived of ispace... it has been a year to remember.

There is a lot of anticipation, so much so that next year may even surpass this one as the biggest for the space industry yet. But many questions remain, particularly about the short-term economic outlook, the current geopolitical instability, and (ahem) some announced delays that may or may not materialize. Here is our forecast for the space industry in 2023.

1. More pressure at launch

It seems clear that there will be increasing pressure in the launch market as more next-gen vehicles come online. We're not just looking at heavy rockets — like SpaceX's Starship and United Launch Alliance's Vulcan — but a whole host of smaller and medium launchers that aim for low cost and high throughput. These include Relativity's Terran 1, Astra's Rocket 4, ABL Space Systems' RS1, Rocket Factory Augsburg's One launcher and Orbex's Prime micro-launcher. As we mentioned above, space industry deadlines are notoriously tricky (and that caveat applies throughout the post), but it's likely that at least a handful of new rockets will fly for the first time next year.

Evidence that new vehicles are driving down prices and increasing inventory, meaning more launches and dates are available for private and government companies. The incumbents will have to work hard to maintain the lead they have established.

2. Big developments in UK, China and India

The international space scene will continue to grow. While there is a lot to expect from Europe, we have our eyes set on the UK, China and India. From the UK, we expect to see the country's first-ever space launch with Virgin Orbit's "Start Me Up" mission from Spaceport Cornwall. We're also expecting a lot of activity from the Indian Space Research Organization, as well as launch startup Skyroot. China has had a great year in 2022 - including the completion of its own space station in orbit and the dispatch of several crews of taikonauts - and we expect there will be no slowdown next year, because the country is looking to keep pace with US industrial growth.

It's hard to say exactly how decentralizing the private space beyond a handful of major vendors and launch locations will affect the industry, but it will certainly help diversify projects and stakeholders in orbit.

3. Continued growth for satellites and Earth observation

Image credits :Pixels

Similar to the launch, we will see even more satellite constellations large and small rise next year, which will put pressure on the satellite and Earth Observation (EO) industries. Just two examples: Amazon's highly anticipated Project Kuiper will likely see its first launches next year, and Pixxel will launch 6 high-resolution hyperspectral imaging satellites in the second half of the year.

Most estimates assume that satcom and EO will experience more growth over the decade, so we don't expect new entrants to crowd out existing players. But we think we'll see even greater adoption of, say, Starlink or