president-elect; there is no more room for error for Nigeria, By Bámidélé Adémólá-Olátéjú

Nigerian President-elect Bola Ahmed Tinubu. [CREDIT: Tinubu Twitter page]

…when you are handed a Poisoned Chalice, you do five things. First, recognize that you face a high probability of failure and therefore seek to mitigate it. Two, having a team to manage communication and optics. Third, clarify your position and opposing positions, and publicize differences of opinion. Fourth, seek and build consensus. Five, go for the low hanging fruits i.e. go for the small wins early to keep Nigerians engaged and happy.

There is no more room for error for Nigeria. The country is technically insolvent and has barely nine months to avoid talks with the International Monetary Fund (IMF). Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu, the new president, will inherit a poisoned gift. The bad day was long postponed, as its predecessors kicked the streets. Hard decisions have to be made. To begin with, the recommendations of the Oronsaye report on the costs of government must be fully implemented. In addition, the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) needs to regain its operational independence in order to focus on its core mandate of ensuring price stability. Amendments to the CBN Act will be required.

Multiple exchange rates will need to be eliminated and subsidies removed to achieve fiscal balance, leading to the stability needed to raise incomes to achieve inclusive shared prosperity and “more abundant life.” Nigeria cannot remove subsidies immediately, as Ruto removed them in Kenya. Kenya has a more balanced economy. We have no electricity and there are many distortions in the Nigerian economy. I recommend a quarterly withdrawal over a period of 15 months. The president-elect should begin removing subsidies during the honeymoon period. With a victory of less than 40% of the vote, he will have to negotiate the national cohesion necessary to carry out the surgery necessary for a national rebirth.

If history is any guide, a national reboot can only be accomplished through the establishment of a national democratic accord, uniting civil and political society, to pursue a New Style social and economic reconstruction agenda. American deal. A good example is the Italian “Compromiso histórico” – the “Historical Compromise” of 1971. We need to take a detour from the winner-take-all attitude of the political establishment, a client/boss relationship, and understand need to embrace the fundamentals of elite consensus at this critical crossroads, for self-preservation, if nothing else.

Tinubu should find a communications director with a background in economics, who can explain Nigeria's economic crises in terms understandable to the layman. When a poisoned gift was given to Harold Wilson in 1964, he broke the mold by appointing an economics professor, not a journalist, as chief press officer.

As regards the imbalances in the economy, a gradual and structured elimination of the subsidy over fifteen months is desirable and practical. Tinubu should find a communications director with a background in economics, who can explain Nigeria's economic crises in terms the layman can understand. When a poisoned gift was given to Harold Wilson in 1964, he broke the mold by appointing an economics professor, not a journalist, as chief press officer.

Finally, when you are handed a poisoned gift, you do five things. First, recognize that you face a high probability of failure and therefore seek to mitigate it. Two, having a team to manage communication and optics. Third, clarify your position and opposing positions, and publicize differences of opinion. Fourth, seek and build consensus. Five, go for the low hanging fruits i.e. go for the small wins early to keep Nigerians engaged and happy.

I wish you success. We bet on you for "renewed hope". Congratulations!