This should be the absolute peak of hurricane season, but it's very quiet there

Enlarge / Atlantic hurricane season peaks September 10. NOAA

To state the obvious: this has been an unorthodox hurricane season in the Atlantic.

Everyone from the United States agency dedicated to the study of weather, oceans and atmosphere, the National Ocean and Atmospheric Administration, to the most reputable hurricane professionals, has predicted a season with a Above normal to much above normal activity.

For example, NOAA's forecast for the 2022 Atlantic hurricane season, which runs from June 1 to November 30, predicted a 65% chance of an above-normal season, 25% chance of a near-normal season and 10% chance of a below-normal season. The main factor driving these forecasts was the expectation that La Niña would persist in the Pacific Ocean, resulting in atmospheric conditions in the tropical Atlantic that are more favorable for the formation and intensification of storms. La Niña persisted, but the thunderstorms still did not arrive in clusters.

Everyone is silent

To date, the Atlantic has seen five named storms, which is not that far from "normal" activity, as measured by climate averages from 1991 to 2020. Normally, to date, the Atlantic reportedly recorded eight tropical storms and hurricanes which were named by the National Hurricane Center.

The disparity is greatest when we look at a measure of storm duration and intensity, known as cumulative cyclone energy. By this more telling metric, the 2022 season has a value of 29.6, less than half the normal value through Saturday, 60.3.

Perhaps what is most striking about this season is that we are now at the absolute peak of hurricane season, and there is simply nothing happening. Although the Atlantic season begins on June 1, it begins slowly, with perhaps a storm here or there in June, and often a calm July before the deep tropics begin in August. Typically, about half of all activity occurs in the 14 weeks leading up to September 10, and then in a mad rush, the vast majority of the remaining storms kick in before the end of October.

While it's still entirely possible that the Atlantic Basin, which includes the Atlantic Ocean, Gulf of Mexico, and Caribbean Sea, will produce a crazy finish, we just don't see any signs of it for the moment. There are no active systems at this time, and the National Hurricane Center is tracking only one tropical wave that will move off the African coast into the Atlantic Ocean in the coming days. It has a relatively low chance of development, and none of the global models anticipate much of the system. Our best global models show about a 20-30% chance of a tropical depression developing anywhere in the Atlantic over the next 10 days.

This is the exact opposite of what we normally see at this time of year, when the tropics are usually lit up like a Christmas tree. The reason for this is that September provides a window where the Atlantic is still warm from the summer months, and we typically see some of the lowest wind shear values ​​in storm-forming regions.

What went wrong

So what's happened this year to cause a quiet season, at least so far? A detailed analysis will have to wait after the season, but so far we have seen a lot of dust in the atmosphere, which has choked off the formation of thunderstorms. Additionally, high-altitude winds in the atmosphere have generally been hostile to storm formation, essentially shearing off the top of any developing tropical system.

While it looks like the seasonal forecast for 2022 is likely to collapse, it is important to understand the difference between this activity and the actual storm forecast. Seasonal forecasting is still a developing science. While generally truer than false, predicting specific weather conditions such as hurricanes months in advance is far from a settled science.

The Atlantic tropics are extraordinarily calm for the peak of hurricane season. National Hurricane Center...