Too Hot to Work: Jobs Fall as Temperatures Rise
The Fed resumed interest rate hikes amid strong economic indicators such as low unemployment and a stable housing market. But what about Main Street?
Data from Homebase reveals that small businesses continue to fight labor shortages by raising wages, even as summer slows and heat waves slow business.
The Fed has resumed wage hikes amid a seasonal drop in Main Street employment. Meanwhile, small business owners are tackling labor shortages with wage increases for workers, while extreme heat is hampering consumer spending in the South and Southwest. Homebase seeks to understand how the broader economic environment affects small businesses and their employees at the start of the third quarter by analyzing behavioral data from over two million employees working in more than one hundred thousand SMBs.
Summary of Findings: Main Street businesses are seeing a seasonal drop in business expected for the summer. Team growth slows as salaries increase.
Small businesses have seen an expected seasonal drop in the number of people working. Entertainment and hospitality increased their teams but less than in previous years, while retail and restaurants decreased more than in previous years. It is too hot to work in the South and the South-West in the middle of the heat waves. Hourly wages rose again – and even more aggressively than in June – driven by summer entertainment demand.Summer means less activity for Main Street businesses.
Small businesses saw an expected decline in July in the number of people working and hours worked. This is a consistent seasonal trend every year.
Employees working
(Monthly change in 7-day average, relative to January of reported year)
Hours worked
(Monthly change in 7-day average, relative to January of reported year)
Data compares 7-day moving averages for weeks encompassing the 12th of each month; April data includes the following week to take into account the Easter holidays. Source: Homebase data.
But this year, it's really too hot to work.
Extreme heat in the South has upended consumer habits, reduced foot traffic and resulted in fewer people working.
Note: July 6-12 vs. June 11-17. Source: Homebase data
Slower than expected team growth this year as many small businesses continue to face labor shortages and rising wages.
Entertainment¹ and hospitality increased the size of their teams from June to July, but the growth was much lower than in previous years for the same period.
Food, beverage and retail saw slight declines in the number of employees working from June to July, but the declines were larger than in previous years.
Percentage change in number of employees working
(Mid-July vs. Mid-June, using January 19, January 22, and January 23 baselines) ²
The Fed resumed interest rate hikes amid strong economic indicators such as low unemployment and a stable housing market. But what about Main Street?
Data from Homebase reveals that small businesses continue to fight labor shortages by raising wages, even as summer slows and heat waves slow business.
The Fed has resumed wage hikes amid a seasonal drop in Main Street employment. Meanwhile, small business owners are tackling labor shortages with wage increases for workers, while extreme heat is hampering consumer spending in the South and Southwest. Homebase seeks to understand how the broader economic environment affects small businesses and their employees at the start of the third quarter by analyzing behavioral data from over two million employees working in more than one hundred thousand SMBs.
Summary of Findings: Main Street businesses are seeing a seasonal drop in business expected for the summer. Team growth slows as salaries increase.
Small businesses have seen an expected seasonal drop in the number of people working. Entertainment and hospitality increased their teams but less than in previous years, while retail and restaurants decreased more than in previous years. It is too hot to work in the South and the South-West in the middle of the heat waves. Hourly wages rose again – and even more aggressively than in June – driven by summer entertainment demand.Summer means less activity for Main Street businesses.
Small businesses saw an expected decline in July in the number of people working and hours worked. This is a consistent seasonal trend every year.
Employees working
(Monthly change in 7-day average, relative to January of reported year)
Hours worked
(Monthly change in 7-day average, relative to January of reported year)
Data compares 7-day moving averages for weeks encompassing the 12th of each month; April data includes the following week to take into account the Easter holidays. Source: Homebase data.
But this year, it's really too hot to work.
Extreme heat in the South has upended consumer habits, reduced foot traffic and resulted in fewer people working.
Note: July 6-12 vs. June 11-17. Source: Homebase data
Slower than expected team growth this year as many small businesses continue to face labor shortages and rising wages.
Entertainment¹ and hospitality increased the size of their teams from June to July, but the growth was much lower than in previous years for the same period.
Food, beverage and retail saw slight declines in the number of employees working from June to July, but the declines were larger than in previous years.
Percentage change in number of employees working
(Mid-July vs. Mid-June, using January 19, January 22, and January 23 baselines) ²
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