Oscars 2023: Best actress predictions

We'll be updating these predictions throughout awards season, so keep checking IndieWire for all of our 2023 Oscar picks. Nominations voting takes place January 12-17, 2023, official nominations Oscars being announced on January 24, 2023. Final voting will take place March 2-7, 2023. And finally, the 95th Oscars TV show will premiere Sunday, March 12 and air live on ABC at 8:00 p.m. ET/ 5:00 PM PT.

Marcus Jones, TV and Film Awards Editor, is currently filling in for Anne Thompson on Oscars forecast updates. Check out his opening thoughts on what to expect at the 95th Academy Awards here.

The state of the race

During the weekend of Venice and Telluride, there were two actresses who dominated the conversation for better or for worse.

"TÁR," Cate Blanchett's new film starring writer/director Todd Fields that's a portrait of a woman of artistic genius on a downward spiral, has had many festival-goers declaring the Best Actress race a winner. already settled, and Blanchett will surely collect his third Oscar in March. If there's a counter-narrative, it's that her character Lydia Tár quite easily rubs people the wrong way (which some might say is the point), so the film's nearly three-hour runtime may prove to be a difficult experience for viewers who feel disgusted with her.

As well as 'TÁR', Telluride's flagship film was 'Women Talking', the latest film from writer/director Sarah Polley. Despite the film featuring stunning performances from Claire Foy, Jessie Buckley, and more, it doesn't exactly have a clear lead. The film tells the story of women from a Mennonite colony who have been raped by their male counterparts and must decide together whether to stay or leave their home. Although it's a very different type of movie than "The Help," this movie provides a bit of a roadmap on how to approach choosing which actresses go where. Like Octavia Spencer and Jessica Chastain, Foy and Buckley seem destined to be nominated for Best Supporting Actress, with one of them even winning, but to pave the way for that and also highlight another great performance. in the film, Rooney Mara could campaign for Best Actress the same way Viola Davis did in 2011. Mara's moving turn as a pregnant Ona really evokes the themes of the film, and she's even the main subject of the narration that plays throughout this one. Placing her in the Best Actress category seems like the best possible chance for the women in the film to be recognized in the acting categories.

"The Wonder"

Netflix

Another actress in the running has two ways to go. Florence Pugh wasn't just a Best Actress nominee for "The Wonder," Sebastián Lelio's superb Netflix film in which she plays a nurse caring for a young girl with a strange illness in the 19th Century Ireland; she's also behind what was once the most anticipated movie of the fall: "Don't Worry Darling." Although she provides a movie-star performance in Olivia Wilde's second effort, which is Psychology's biggest highlight...