Strong move in Bitcoin price expected as volatility remains at record highs and sellers are 'exhausted'

Bitcoin price has been in a range for 126 days, but analysts say an explosive move is imminent.

Market analysis

Bitcoin's (BTC) lack of volatility has been the top talking point among traders for the past two weeks and the current sideways trades in the $18,000-$25,000 range have been in effect for 126 days . A majority of traders agree that a significant price move is imminent, but what exactly do they base this thesis on?

Let's take a look at three data points that predict a spike in Bitcoin volatility.

Moderate volatility and seller exhaustion

According to Glassnode research, the "bitcoin market is primed for volatility", with both on-chain and off-chain data sending out multiple signals. The researchers note that realized volatility over the week fell to 28%, a level that is usually followed by a large price change.

1-Week Realized Bitcoin Volatility. Source: glassnode

Exploring Bitcoin's aSOPR, a metric that "measures an average realized profit/loss multiple for coins spent on a given day", shows:

"A large divergence is currently forming between the price action and the aSOPR metric. As prices move sideways or lower, the magnitude of locked-in losses decreases, indicating an exhaustion of sellers within the range of current price."

Bitcoins Adjusted SOPR. Source: Glassnode

In addition to the divergence between the price and the adjusted SOPR, short-term Bitcoin holders approach their break-even point as the SOPR of short-term holders approaches of 1.0.

This is important because a reading of 1.0 during a bear market has always worked as a resistance level and traders tend to exit positions near the breakeven point.

If aSPOR were to peak above 1.0 and turn the level towards support, it could b...