The summer box office is back. Here's why it's not enough

Movie receipts this summer have been the real deal. They made a statement: cinemas remain the platform through which feature films make their best debut. Also this summer: streaming platforms had to face their own limitations and growing pains. At a time when 'House of the Dragon', 'Squid Game' and 'Stranger Things' are breaking viewing records and generating more media attention than most films, Paramount's 'Top Gun: Maverick' showed how a movie theater can become a sensation. which greeting events cannot duplicate.

That's the good news. The not-so-good: The summer revealed and reinforced lingering weaknesses in post-Covid exposure and those are the ones that even a $1.5 billion global blockbuster can't touch.

The national summer box office — traditionally defined as the first weekend in May through Labor Day — will total approximately $3.35 billion. That's about 77% up on the pre-Covid 2019 summer. However, we've seen the definition of the start of the summer box office shift to the release of the first Disney Marvel movie. In 2019, "Avengers: Endgame" opened in late April; this year, "Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness" opened in May.

According to this metric, the 2022 vs 2019 comparison drops to 71% - the same comparison figure for spring 2022 vs 2019 and the holiday period 2021 vs 2019. This suggests that, although gross receipts are in recovery, they seem about 30% bogged down. percent below pre-Covid standards.

Another factor: ticket prices have risen sharply, as has the share of tickets sold for more expensive premium presentations. The National Association of Theater Owners hasn't revised its average ticket price since 2019, but industry sources suggest it's increased by at least 20%. Combined with declining revenue, actual attendance appears to have fallen by more than 40% since 2019.

Regal Cinemas in New York

STRF/STAR MAX/IPx

“Top Gun: Maverick” was the subject of many summer box office covers. Harder numbers explain why, just at the end of the summer, Regal owner Cineworld said it would file for Chapter 11 bankruptcy reorganization. In a statement Cineworld made before confirming the bankruptcy, "Despite a gradual recovery in demand since reopening in April 2021, recent admission levels have been below expectations." Although recent and near-term future earnings have improved, this is not enough.

Where is the lag? Similar to 2019, approximately 75% of revenue came from franchise or sequel titles, 25% from standalone titles. However, 64% of revenue came from the top five grossing releases. In 2019, this share was 52%. Beyond massive debt, it's the biggest sin...