Booming 'Avatar: The Way of Water' Earns $8 Million More Sunday Than Expected

As industry watchers suggested yesterday, "Avatar: The Way of the Water" (Disney) did much better at Christmas than the studio had originally estimated. Actual domestic gross was $29.5 million, not $21.5 million. The three-day weekend total was $64 million, not $54 million as originally reported, or a cumulative $261,682,000.

This is of course a major positive sign for the film, as December 26 is also a public holiday that usually pays out even better than Christmas. With eight more days of holiday play until January 2, based on Christmas Day performance, James Cameron's film could see an additional domestic box office of $150 million or more added to its total. That would earn him well over $400 million, before a fairly free ride for several weeks as a likely No. 1, even with diminishing totals. This suggests the film could see a domestic total closer to $600 million rather than the lower initial numbers projected.

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The drop for all three days was 52% from the opening weekend, compared to 58% originally reported. This compares well to "Rogue One", which dominated Christmas in 2016 when the calendar last matched this year. This is especially important as the weather had a major impact on both Friday and Saturday, further hurting the box office.

Surprisingly, of the weekend's top ten films, only "The Way of Water" didn't more than double its Christmas Eve gross. It's not unusual when a movie does most of the business. Large pre-purchases could also have helped him on Saturday, those who would otherwise have delayed would continue.

Among the revised early numbers still coming in, number 3 "I Wanna Dance with Somebody" (Sony) has dropped significantly from its original estimate. It took $4,765,000, not the originally estimated $5,300,000. "Babylon" (Paramount), although improving by $100,000, was still at $3,600,000.

While top-grossing “The Way of Water” is indeed good news, the three-day weekend only grossed $94 million. This is 62% less than in 2019, when ticket prices were 20% lower, and down more than a third from last year (with a more favorable December 24-26 calendar ).

Disney has released domestic results only, with full international tally details to come.

A revised table with actual gross receipts is forthcoming as all figures are reported.

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