What Russia's actions under the grain deal mean for Ukraine

Russia warned on Wednesday it would consider any ship sailing around Ukrainian ports a military target, days after Moscow pulled out of a year-long deal that had allowed Kiev to export its grain across the Black Sea despite a wartime blockade.

Here is an overview of alternative options for Ukraine to export its grain:

What is the immediate impact of Russia's warning?

The Russian Defense Ministry on Wednesday issued a warning to ship operators and other nations suggesting that any attempt to circumvent the blockade could be considered a act of war. World grain prices rose sharply after the announcement, but remained below prices when Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. Prices appeared to stabilize on Thursday. , a US-based investment advisory firm.

How have Russia's attacks on Ukrainian ports affected the situation?

Since Monday's announcement, Russia has launched a series of nightly air strikes against Ukrainian ports, killing and injuring civilians. On Wednesday, an attack in Chornomorsk, just south of Odessa, also destroyed 60,000 tonnes of grain waiting to be loaded onto ships. That's enough to feed more than 270,000 people for a year, according to the World Food Programme.

ImageThe site of a building destroyed after a Russian attack in Odessa, Ukraine on Thursday.Credit...Oleksandr Gimanov/Agence France-Presse — Getty Images

The airstrikes appear to reinforce Russia's decision to end the deal and its refusal to allow Ukrainian exports via the Black Sea. They are also raising the stakes on how possible talks on reviving the deal might play out.

Can Ukraine continue to export food across the Black Sea despite Russia's threat?

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky spoke on Monday about forging a deal with Turkey and the United Nations, which helped broker the deal, to continue grain exports independently of Moscow . There has been no official response from either party to the idea. Russia's warning on Wednesday, however, would likely discourage commercial shipping companies and raise the price of any marine insurance, which, in turn, would make Ukrainian grain more expensive on the international market.

What does this mean for shipping? coastline and is a main conduit for grain exports from Russia. Ukraine warned on Thursday that it would consider Russian ships heading to Russian ports or ports in occupied Ukraine as carrying "military goods, with all the corresponding risks...