A general view of the MV Hondius cruise ship stationary off the port of Praia, the capital of Cape Verde, on May 3, 2026.
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For now, prediction market traders aren’t too worried about the hantavirus.
Kalshi’s data shows there is only a 21% chance that the hantavirus outbreak will be a concern this year. The prediction markets platform opened its hantavirus market Wednesday evening, noting that the issue will be resolved if the World Health Organization verifies that the virus constitutes “a public health emergency of international concern” in 2026.
Compared to other markets open on the same day, trading in this market was high. On Friday, outbreak-related volume reached over $174,000, the highest of any market open during that period.
The WHO identified the virus as an epidemic on May 4, according to the Associated Pressweeks after several passengers on a Dutch-flagged cruise ship sailing the Atlantic Ocean fell ill. An outbreak occurs when more people contract diseases than expected in a specific community, geographic area or season, according to the WHO. website States.
The deadly, viral respiratory disease is spread through the urine, feces or saliva of infected rodents and through contact with contaminated surfaces, according to the WHO.
Spanish health authorities said Friday that a woman in the country’s southeastern region had symptoms consistent with hantavirus. Reuters reported. In the The Netherlandsthree people with symptoms of the virus tested negative.
That said, the WHO has said the risk of the virus to public health is low.
“Although this is a serious incident, WHO considers the risk to public health to be low.” Director General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus told the media. “It is possible that more cases will be reported.”
THE The WHO reported that there were a total of 147 passengers and crew on board the cruise ship. A former Centers for Disease Control and Prevention official and another person familiar with the matter told CNBC this week that six states were monitoring passengers who were on cruises and have since returned to the United States.
These states are Arizona, California, Georgia, Texas, Virginia and New Jersey. Health departments in Arizona, Georgia and Texas said the former passengers had no symptoms.
Disclosure: CNBC and Kalshi have a business relationship that includes customer acquisition and minority investment.
