An American flag waves in the wind as the crude oil tanker CHIOS is anchored off Chevron’s El Segundo refinery in El Segundo, California, March 4, 2026.
Patrick T. Fallon | Afp | Getty Images
U.S. crude oil prices fell below $100 a barrel on Wednesday after President Donald Trump said negotiations with Iran were in the final stages.
West Texas Intermediate Futures fell more than 6% to $97.74 a barrel as of 12:58 p.m. ET. International reference Brent Futures also lost nearly 6% to $104.62 a barrel.
Trump said earlier this week that he had called off further military strikes against Iran to give more time for diplomacy at the request of Gulf Arab allies. He told reporters Wednesday that the administration was in the “final stages” of negotiations with Iran, according to a report from the group.
Trump has repeatedly made optimistic statements about reaching a deal with Iran and a quick end to the war, only for tensions to escalate again between Washington and Tehran.
Iran and the United States have been in a standoff for weeks now, as Tehran blocks the Strait of Hormuz and Washington blocks Iranian ports. Hormuz is one of the world’s most important trade routes for oil and gas supplies.
Citibank warned on Tuesday that the market was undervaluing the risk of a long interruption of oil supplies to Hormuz. He expects Brent to trade as high as $120 a barrel in the near term.
“It appears increasingly likely, in our view, that the Iranian regime will disrupt SoH flows for some time,” Citi analysts told clients.
Oil prices could approach $200 a barrel in a worst-case scenario where Hormuz remains closed until the end of the year, according to an analysis published Wednesday by Wood Mackenzie.
However, prices would fall sharply if the United States and Iran reach a quick peace that would open up Hormuz by June, according to Wood Mackenzie. In this scenario, Brent spot prices would fall to around $80 per barrel by the end of 2026, the consultancy said.
