Rayhan DémytrieCorrespondent Caucasus, Yerevan, Armenia
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Armenia will vote on June 7 under growing economic pressure from Russia, as Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan seeks re-election on the back of a promise of European integration.
The election focused international attention on the small South Caucasus nation of three million people, which has gradually moved closer to the West while remaining closely linked to Russia, its largest trading partner.
The rapprochement with the West is largely Pashinyan’s work.
Since coming to power in 2018, the prime minister has distanced his country from Moscow, passed legislation to start the EU accession process and accelerated the peace process with neighboring Azerbaijan via a US-brokered deal. The latter earned him the support of American President Donald Trump.
Pashinyan also hosted a major summit of EU leaders and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky in the capital, Yerevan, earlier this year.
Yet despite these successes, domestic support for Pashinyan has fallen from 54% in 2021 to around 30% today.
The main reason is Nagorno-Karabakh, a mountainous enclave inside Azerbaijan that was home to 100,000 ethnic Armenians until Azerbaijan took it by force in 2023.
Pashinyan’s critics have never forgiven him for making concessions for peace with Azerbaijan, such as refusing to campaign for the release of former Nagorno-Karabakh leaders imprisoned in the neighboring country.
The peace deal with Azerbaijan also remains a source of deep divisions, with a recent poll showing 44% of public opinion in favor and 41% against.
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Pashinyan’s critics now form several opposition parties and alliances. One of the main ones is the Armenian Alliance, led by former President Robert Kocharian. Former President Serzh Sargsyan’s Republican Party is not fielding candidates but has urged its supporters to vote against the incumbent president.
Both former leaders say restoring deep military and economic ties with Russia is the only path to Armenia’s national security.
And Pashinyan’s main challenger is billionaire Samvel Karapetyan, who made his fortune in Russia. He is under house arrest – accused of plotting to overthrow the government – and is running the campaign through his nephew.
The latest poll from the International Republican Institute puts Pashinyan’s Civil Contract in the lead with 32%, while around 40% of voters say they do not trust any political figure.
If opposition candidates worked together, they could match Pashinyan’s votes, but divided, they could not beat him.
Russia’s economic weapon
Moscow looms over the vote.
Last month, Vladimir Putin listed the economic benefits Armenia stood to lose if it pursued closer ties with the West, and stressed that “the crisis in Ukraine began with efforts to move toward EU membership.”
Tangible economic measures follow the rhetoric. In the two weeks before the elections, Moscow banned the export of Armenian flowers, mineral water, cognac, vegetables and fresh fruits.
Russia is Armenia’s main trading partner and accounted for 36% of its foreign trade in 2025.
Moscow is “trying to somehow influence the final results of the June 7 vote,” said Haykaz Fanyan of the Armenian Center for Socio-Economic Studies. “In Armenia, we believe this is closely related to current political processes.”
He notes that Armenia’s dependence on Russian military equipment has decreased significantly, with around 95% of Armenia’s military imports now coming from India, France, China and other countries.
“The only way Russia can impact Armenia now is economically,” Fanyan said.
But it remains an important weapon for Moscow. Russia supplies gas to Armenia at $177.50 (£87) per 1,000 cubic meters, while European market prices, as Putin pointed out to Pashinyan in April, exceed $600.
In late May, the Russian president also called on Armenia to hold a referendum “as soon as possible” on whether to join the EU or stay in the Russia-led Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU), a customs bloc from which Armenia benefits.
Pashinyan avoided the challenge. Despite its good-natured and developing relations with European leaders, Armenia does not yet even have EU candidate status, and membership in the bloc is still far away.
“We will continue to work within the EAEU until the choice between its current membership and the EU becomes inevitable,” he said. “Today, this choice is theoretical in nature.”
However, the EU is not remaining idle. On Thursday, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen pledged 50 million euros (£43 million) for Armenia in the face of what she called “Moscow weaponizing its economic relations for political pressure”, and added that the EU would facilitate trade with Yerevan for goods targeted by Moscow.
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A tense campaign
Pashinyan is campaigning under the slogan “Stand up for peace!” “.
But the campaign did not pass without confrontation, notably between Pashinyan and the displaced Armenians of Karabakh. One incident ended when the prime minister used offensive language against civil activist Artur Osipyan, who was later arrested for obstructing the election campaign and went on a hunger strike in protest.
Such incidents have led opposition figures to accuse Pashinyan of increasing authoritarianism and using state resources – including pressuring civil servants to attend his rallies – to his advantage.
“Pashinyan and his regime are using every possible and impossible administrative lever. They are sowing an atmosphere of fear and blackmail,” said Artur Khachatryan, an MP from the opposition Armenian Alliance party.
“I don’t remember any campaign as tense as this one.”
Pashinyan relies on his doctrine of a “real Armenia”: a country at peace with Azerbaijan and integrated into Europe, rather than a country defined by territorial ambitions and dependence on Moscow.
His support may have collapsed – but for many voters he remains the only alternative to a return to a past tainted by corruption and authoritarianism.
For ordinary Armenians heading to the polls, the question is more difficult than any geopolitical framework: Are they willing to bear the economic costs of Pashinyan’s chosen direction – costs that Russia ensures they can feel – knowing that the European future is still a distant prospect?
On June 7, this question will be answered.
