A new axis?

As tensions rise in Taiwan, we examine the common interests of China, Russia and the 'Iran.

Vladimir Putin has only traveled outside the borders of the former Soviet Union twice this year. Once was to visit China in February, and another was to visit Iran last month, points out my colleague David Sanger.

These two countries obviously have something in common. common. Like Russia, China and Iran view the United States as an adversary. If the world splits into two competing blocs – democracy versus autocracy, as President Biden put it – Russia, China and Iran constitute the core of the anti-American movement. block. And they seem to be strengthening their cooperation recently.

Their closer ties raise an alarming prospect: what if the three countries decided to take on the United States simultaneously in an effort to overwhelm the US ability to respond?

Russia has already invaded Ukraine and has the ability to expand its attack to new parts of the country. Iran has so far refused to rejoin the nuclear pact that Donald Trump canceled and may at some point take steps to build a nuclear weapon. China has become more aggressive towards Taiwan, and US officials are concerned about the possibility of an invasion in the coming years.

"I'm not predicting it" , David said. me, raising the prospect of simultaneous acts of aggression by China, Iran and Russia. "But there's reason to think it's plausible, and our system can barely handle one big conflict at a time."

This week the focus is on is oriented towards Taiwan. Nancy Pelosi, the Speaker of the House, could soon stop there, as part of her current tour of Asia, which would make her the most senior American official to visit the island in years. Newt Gingrich visited in 1997 while he was a speaker, and Alex Azar, Trump's health and human services secretary, visited in 2020.

Chinese officials reacted angrily to Pelosi's planned visit, which underscores China's new aggression towards Taiwan. Xi Jinping, the Chinese president, appeared to refer to her last week when he told Biden that the United States should not be "playing with fire". Some US intelligence officials believe China could send fighter jets to escort Pelosi's plane as it approaches Taiwan or take action in the coming weeks to harm Taiwan's economy. to warn China not to take aggressive action. “Our actions are non-threatening and they are not innovative,” John Kirby, a spokesman, said yesterday at the White House. "Nothing about this potential visit - potential visit - which, by the way, has precedent, would change the status quo."

There is no easy choice for the United States. in this situation.

If Pelosi had canceled the visit, ...