'Avatar: The Way of Water' is set to hit $350 million in China

"Avatar: The Way of the Water" is expected to reach a box office gross of 2.5 billion RMB, or $357 million at current exchange rates, according to a major Chinese ticketing company.

Predictions were released by Maoyan on Friday morning in the early hours of the film's commercial release in l 'Kingdom, and the figure is potentially subject to significant revisions. Company forecasts are usually based on actual sales, presales and other metrics such as the intensity of social media interest.

At 12:30 p.m. As of Friday, the film had racked up 86 million RMB ($12.2 million in sales) for first-day screenings. Including Wednesday previews and midnight showings on Thursday, the film had a running total of RMB120 million ($17 million) as of Friday noon.

Getting acquainted with the box office performance of "Avatar 2" in China was particularly difficult . It's the first Hollywood film to be released in China in several months, benefited from a three-week marketing campaign and is coming to mainland China theaters around the same time the film is released in the rest of the world. . These are all positives, working in favor of a film and director with built-in name recognition.

The big unknown has been the state of the Chinese exhibition industry and the anti-COVID controls that l have followed throughout this year have caused instantaneous lockdowns of major cities, mass testing requirements and localized travel restrictions. These controls have already caused the Chinese box office to drop by more than $3 billion compared to a more dynamic 2021 and would have pushed many Chinese exhibitors to the brink.

In the last 10 days, and since "Avatar 2" got its release window, the Chinese central government has removed many COVID control restrictions. At first glance, this would seem like another boost for the film. But the measures also mean the disease is allowed to spread through the population and suddenly less data on infections is now available. Local media reported that people responded by staying home to avoid infection and stocking up on medicine, nutritious food and alcohol.

Nearly three years of government messaging about the dangers of close human contact leaves unclear whether Chinese audiences would be ready to return to cinemas. When asked unscientifically by Variety at a recent industry event, a handful of Chinese box office geeks gave up. They said that the potential of "Avatar 2" in China is huge, but they don't know if this potential can be achieved.

the first installment of "Avatar" grossed some $200 million in 2009, a time when the number of screens and high-end large-format screens in China were much smaller than today.

The biggest Hollywood movie in China this year was "Jurassic World: Dominion", which earned $157 million. The biggest Chinese movie this year was “Water Gate Bridge” (aka “The Battle at Lake Changjin 2”), which was released during the Lunar New Year holiday season in February and grossed RMB 4.07 billion. ($581 million). Since then, few other films - Chinese or imported - have lived up to their potential.

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