'Avatar: The Way of Water': When savior movies weren't enough to save the box office

Disney's James Cameron's "Avatar: The Way of the Water" fell short of the (perhaps unrealistic) national opening expectations of perhaps $50 million. For now, let's defer judgment and focus on the director's own story and timeline rather than comparisons to previous Marvel and "Star Wars" movies.

Disney estimates the domestic weekend will be $134 million, compared to $435 million worldwide. It's phenomenal by any standards other than the franchises mentioned above. However, with an estimated cost of at least $400 million, "The Way of Water" is a film that falls short of the standards.

The total for all films this weekend is estimated at $152 million. Last year, with "Spider-Man: No Way Home" opening at $260 million, that figure was $283 million. In 2019, when tickets were 20% cheaper, it was $248 million.

At 61% of 2019, our unadjusted four-week moving average drops to 51%. That's a horrible rate as we enter the all-important Christmas weeks.

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Cameron's film reinforces the idea that savior films are not enough. Gross for 2022 in the domestic market now looks like $7.5 billion, perhaps 15% below the year's $8.5 billion minimum projection and a far cry from $11.2 billion. 2019 (which at current ticket prices would exceed $13 billion).

There are only three major studio releases left: "Whitney Houston: I Wanna Dance with Somebody" (Sony), "Puss in Boots: The Last Wish" (Universal), and "Babylon" (Paramount). bigger than any Christmas before.

Key factors in rating "The Way of Water" include more limited seating for more expensive premium formats, a running time of 192 minutes which could encourage delayed viewing during the holidays, and performances of " Titanic" and the first "Avatar" which saw Christmas and weekdays provide significant revenue. If these points are true, they point to a potential multiple of four times. Most franchise blockbusters don't even see a multiple of three times.

“Titanic” saw a domestic multiple of 22; "Avatar", 10 times. That won't happen here since "The Way of Water" was in a much better position to launch a huge initial gross. The first "Avatar" opened to an adjusted $113 million, but things have changed: theaters are now doing everything they can to boost a film like this, while distributors are canceling the date.

Consider this a work in progress. The actual Sunday number; weekdays; the second weekend with Christmas Eve on Saturday and a bank holiday Monday; the very important period from December 27th to January 2nd - these will tell a lot more about the story.

The last time the timeline matched exactly was in 2016, when "Rogue One: A Star Wars Story" opened at an adjusted $200 million, then dropped 59% in its second week -end. The bet is that "The Way of Water" won't fall that far. It may reach $400 million through January 2, with enough clout to reach $550 million.

Everything else in the top 10 made a whopping $18 million. Two films - #2 "Black Panther: Wakanda Forever" (Disney, which has four of the top five films including Searchlight's "The Menu") and "Violent Night" (Universal) - accounted for half of that. Only five movies have grossed over $1 million. A reissue of "The Polar Express" (Warner Bros. Discovery) reached No. 10 with an estimate of $260,000.