Billions of dollars are at stake in a confusing holiday shopping season

It promises to be unpredictable, with retailers and consumers still unsure how much they will spend and on what types of goods.

No one really knows what to think of this year's holiday season. But billions of dollars depend on it.

After two pandemic holiday seasons marred by door busters, party plans and supply chains, retailers hoped that this year would be a return to sanity. But just when it started to appear that families and shops could pull out their old playbooks, near-record inflation and war in Ukraine arrived, only heightening general unease about the state of the game. world.

Some things are getting better. The pandemic has receded, supply chains have generally stabilized, and the labor market is strong.

But in March, the Federal Reserve began raising rates of interest to slow inflation, just as retail executives were making plans for the toys, wreaths and fuzzy socks shoppers would buy next winter. To try to ensure a robust shopping season, retailers have been digging in early and often. Christmas trees arrived at Costco in August. Amazon kicked off what amounted to a second Prime Day in October. And it seems like every day has brought ads for Black Friday deals, like the ones Target has been running throughout October.

Still, the buyers seem confused. Should they buy now or later? Buying for a large number of people or favoring a few? Donating items or sharing experiences? Trust online delivery or opt for local stores?

"The truth is, we don't know whether consumers will spend more or less on gifts or whether they will will do more shopping online or in the mall,” Etsy Chief Executive Josh Silverman recently told investors with a shrug.

"We don't know exactly how big holiday spending will be compared to last year," Brian Olsavsky, Amazon's chief financial officer, told investors in October, "and we're ready for a variety results."

Or, as Peter Boneparth, Kohl's chairman of the board, told analysts this month: "I think everyone believes that Christmas will come, but I don't think anyone knows exactly what will happen.

Feeling Inflation Squeeze Media" role="group">ImageCredit...Mathias Wasik for The New York Times

Inflation is on everyone's mind Higher prices on all sorts of items have caused people to rethink what they are buying and for whom they are buying While inflation is moderating slightly, it is at its highest level since 'Indiana Jones beat the Lost Ark looters at the mall's cineplex.

The National Retail Federation predicts holiday sales in November and December will increase by 6 at 8% from a year ago. The annual inflation rate in October was 7.7%.

"People are really looking for deals this year “, said Melissa Burdick, who spent a decade at Amazon and founded Pacvue, which helps big brands sell online. cheaper brands and more necessary items." She summed up the sentiment as follows: "I used to want Bose headphones. Now I'm going to buy chips on sale on Amazon."

Cristian Tinoco, 19, who works 45 hours a week at a gymnasium in Seattle and attends community college, said his family would focus on celebrating Christmas together after a difficult time...