Bitcoin's cost per transaction decreases every four years, coincidence?

Bitcoin cost per transaction is calculated by dividing miner revenue by the number of transactions, implying an unpredictable trend.

Bitcoins cost per transaction since the beginning of the year. Source: blockchain.com

Cost per transaction fell over 81% in July 2022 from its all-time high of $300.331 in May 2021, weighted by a combination of a prolonged bear market and fewer on-chain transactions due to regulatory hurdles for general investors.

However, the rise and fall of the cost per transaction is a trend seen every four years. Since its launch in 2009, Bitcoin's cost per transaction has gone through its roller coaster cycle three times - in 2014, 2018, and 2022.

If history were to repeat itself regardless of market conditions, the cost per trade would eclipse the current all-time high by 2026, which would come with a possible drop of around $50.

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Overall, miner revenue also saw a significant reduction throughout 2022, with July marking the lowest month for Bitcoin mining revenue in over two years .

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