Bitcoin price falls below $21,000 leading to more capitulation or just consolidation?

Several indicators and on-chain metrics reflect confluence indicating market improvement, but technical analysis still raises the possibility of Bitcoin falling to low levels. new yearly lows.

On July 26, the price of Bitcoin (BTC) fell below $21,000, restoring the majority of the gains accumulated the previous week and returning to the range of $23,300 to $18,500 that Glassnode analysts describe as "30 week high and 30 week low". .”

A handful of analysts and traders attribute the July 26-27 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting and the expected Federal Reserve rate hike as the main reasons for the current sell-off.

Barring news that the US economy has entered a recession, a few traders believe that the expected 75-100 basis point (BPS) rise will be followed by a relief rally that could see BTC, Ether (ETH) and other large-cap altcoins return to the top of their current range. Of course, this sentiment reflects more speculation than solid analysis, so take it with a grain of salt.

Bitcoin price range week 30. Source: Glassnode

Given that the price of BTC simply continues to trade in the same range it has been in for 42 days, the real question is whether the market will bring more of consolidation or another round of capitulation.

In its July 26 online newsletter, analysts at Glassnode say investors can find their "conviction by the confluence" of multiple technical and on-chain metrics, suggesting that the peak of capitulation is long past.

According to analysts, the rapid deleveraging has sent many indicators into "extreme statistical deviations" and with the worst of the selloff perhaps behind us, Bitcoin price returning to the $20,000 high zone was expected.

Glassnode notes that:

“June's price decline produced the lowest 4-year rolling Z-Score on record.”

And the analysts explained that the 4-...